Kroger Co (NYSE:KR, XETRA:KOG) shares closed more than 8% lower on Thursday after the grocery retailer reported first-quarter results that largely met expectations and reaffirmed its full-year outlook, while investors looked for greater clarity on planned investments and cost savings.
Jefferies analysts maintained a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock and a $74 price target, describing Kroger's strategy as becoming more defined under CEO Greg Foran.
"Kroger's Q1 results were in-line with expectations, with identical sales excluding fuel up 1% led by e-commerce, fresh products and private-label brands," the analysts wrote. They added that grocery volumes remained negative but improved relative to prior periods, while management indicated unit market share performance was the strongest in two to three years.
Jefferies wrote that fiscal 2026 is expected to be "an H2 story," with Kroger anticipating earnings growth to accelerate in the second half of the year as cost-saving initiatives and investments increase. Management expects second-quarter identical sales to be roughly in line with the first quarter and adjusted earnings per share to be flat year over year, while acknowledging continued pressure on consumers.
The analysts noted that cost savings in the quarter exceeded internal plans by about 30%, with opportunities identified across merchandise costs and non-resale expenses. E-commerce sales increased 19%, driven by delivery services, and Kroger's combined e-commerce and retail media business became profitable.
Jefferies wrote that Foran's strategy is centered on narrowing Kroger's price gap with competitors, simplifying promotions and fostering a faster-paced operating culture. Management has indicated that planned price and value investments will be fully funded by cost reductions and that savings are expected to exceed investments.
However, the company declined to quantify either the amount of expected savings or the scale of planned investments, instead directing investors to its Oct. 20 investor day for additional details.
"Importantly, management was explicit that the strategy is not about being the lowest-price retailer, rather, it's about being more competitive," Jefferies wrote, adding that Kroger is resisting supplier price increases while maintaining pricing discipline.
Despite reducing earnings estimates to account for ongoing consumer weakness, Jefferies wrote that accelerating market share gains, profitable e-commerce operations and a greater focus on execution support its positive view on the company.