Take-Two Interactive Software Inc (NASDAQ:TTWO) is set to open pre-orders for Grand Theft Auto VI on June 25, and Jefferies says the event is shaping up to be a meaningful catalyst for the stock ahead of the game's November 19 release.
The bank expects a new trailer to drop alongside the pre-order launch, but the bigger focus for investors will be pricing. Jefferies sees the base edition landing at either $70 or $80, with $100 considered unlikely.
The firm's base case is $80, given the pull of the GTA franchise, though it notes a $70 price would make premium edition upsells an easier sell.
Those premium editions may be the most telling part of the announcement. Their contents should give the first real clue about how Take-Two plans to monetize GTA VI Online, whether that means bundled subscription months, premium currency, a season pass, or some combination. Jefferies views this as arguably more important than the price tags themselves.
What investors probably won't get on June 25 is a launch date for GTA Online. The bank's base case has the online mode arriving in December, roughly a month after the main game, giving players time with the story before the online ecosystem opens up. Full details on in-game purchases are also expected to come later, closer to release.
PC players will need to be patient too. The November launch is console-only, with Jefferies penciling in April 2027 at the earliest for a PC release.
On the stock, Jefferies pointed to the Red Dead Redemption 2 launch cycle as a potential parallel, when Take-Two shares climbed around 20% from pre-orders to their peak before pulling back into launch. The firm sees the upcoming pre-order window and summer marketing push as the next major catalyst to watch.
Investors cheered the update, sending Take-Two’s shares over 5% higher on Thursday afternoon.