Prediction market traders give only a 26% probability that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal by the end of June, a sharp decline from odds that stood nearer to 50% in May, as the US-Iran conflict drags on with no clear resolution.
The Polymarket contract, which has attracted nearly $12 million in trading volume, resolves in favour of bettors if IMF Portwatch data shows a seven-day moving average of transit calls at or above 60, a threshold that would represent something approaching pre-war normality through the waterway.
That looks a distant prospect. Before the United States and Israel launched their attacks on Iran in late February, around 3,000 vessels typically passed through the strait each month. Transits have since fallen to less than 10% of pre-conflict traffic, with the waterway commercially unnavigable for most shipping.
More than 1,550 commercial vessels remain stranded in and around the strait, with an estimated 22,500 mariners trapped aboard them.
A brief ceasefire between Washington and Tehran raised hopes in April, but proved illusory. Only a handful of vessels transited the strait in the days after the two-week pause in fighting was announced, with shipping remaining at a near-standstill.
The extended disruption has sent crude prices to levels not seen in years. Brent crude averaged $117 a barrel in April, after spiking to a high of $138 on 7 April as the de facto closure of the strait tightened global oil supplies.
Prices have since retreated. WTI crude fell to below $88 a barrel at the end of May, its lowest in around six weeks, after reports emerged that the US and Iran had reached a preliminary agreement to extend the ceasefire and ease shipping restrictions, though the deal has not been finalised.
Analysts caution that even a formal resolution would not quickly translate into normal flows.
Restoring the strait to full operation would require clearing mines, repairing damaged infrastructure and restarting shut-in production, with estimates suggesting it could take until at least September for tanker markets to normalise even if the waterway reopened immediately.
That assessment alone goes a long way to explaining why Polymarket bettors have grown increasingly sceptical that June's deadline will be met.