Shopify Inc (TSX:SH., NYSE:SHOP)’s point-of-sale business could become a more meaningful driver of the company’s long-term growth than investors currently recognize, according to a new research note from UBS.
The analysts wrote that Shopify’s retail POS segment, which handles in-store transactions, currently represents about 12% of the company’s gross merchandise volume (GMV) and could approach roughly 20% by 2035 as adoption expands across small, mid-sized, and larger merchants.
UBS wrote that the in-store business is an “underappreciated” component of Shopify’s long-term valuation, citing the company’s ability to combine its e-commerce tools and merchant ecosystem with physical retail operations.
The analysts also pointed to the size of the addressable market, noting that in-store retail volumes remain significantly larger than e-commerce volumes globally.
They estimate that Shopify’s POS business could contribute between 300 and 500 basis points to the company’s projected 10-year GMV compound annual growth rate of 15% to 21%. UBS also projected the segment could add between 100 and 200 basis points to Shopify’s expected 10-year gross profit CAGR of 15% to 20%.
UBS noted that the market opportunity remains fragmented, with no dominant modern retail POS provider comparable to Toast’s position in the US restaurant POS market. They added that Shopify’s current share of the US in-store retail POS market remains relatively small, estimating it at about 1% of the addressable market, compared with a roughly 14% share in US retail e-commerce.
The firm’s analysis examined Shopify POS across subscription revenue, payments revenue, hardware sales, and other merchant solutions. UBS said its estimates were based on company disclosures and internal assumptions for GMV, gross payment volume, and payment take rates.
It also compared Shopify’s positioning against competitors, including Block’s Square, Fiserv’s Clover, Lightspeed Commerce, and Toast. UBS believes that Shopify could continue gaining share as it expands further into mid-market merchants and select enterprise accounts, highlighting recent in-store deployments involving Estée Lauder brands as an example of the company’s broader retail ambitions