Reports of an imminent ceasefire in the Iran conflict are running well ahead of reality, RBC Capital Markets has warned, as global oil inventories continue to drain at a pace that may be more severe than headline figures suggest.
The bank's commodity strategy team says that despite widespread speculation about a 60-day memorandum of understanding (MOU) that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz to unrestricted navigation, the situation on the ground remains deeply uncertain.
US forces intercepted four Iranian drones in the Strait on Thursday and conducted strikes on Iranian military positions near Bandar Abbas, marking the three-month anniversary of the conflict with yet another exchange of fire.
RBC cautions that even if a temporary MOU is agreed, traffic through the waterway would be largely one-directional and complicated by soaring insurance rates, the legal difficulties of coordinating with entities subject to US sanctions, and the reluctance of Western shipping companies to transit a waterway where the threat of missiles, drones and mines remains live.
The bank believes 27 February 2026 may prove to have been the high point for Hormuz tanker transits for the foreseeable future.
On oil inventories, strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs) have accounted for around 115 million barrels of the net 150 million barrel decline in global stocks since the conflict began, with Asia-Pacific inventories falling hardest.
Excluding the Middle East, where stranded crude has inflated regional storage figures, global inventories are actually down around 200 million barrels, and RBC says the true scale of drawdowns in less transparent markets such as Asia-Pacific may be even greater.
The bank sees further draws ahead, with the supply picture essentially unchanged until demand destruction becomes more pronounced.
On gold, RBC argues that the recent price weakness is a pause rather than a structural reversal, with central bank de-dollarisation, investor demand for haven assets, and a multipolar geopolitical environment all remaining intact as longer-term price supports.