Prediction market Polymarket is pricing a 30% chance that OpenAI's initial public offering drifts into 2027, a scenario that would see the ChatGPT maker left further behind in what has become the most concentrated pipeline of blockbuster technology listings in history.
SpaceX has already filed its public S-1 with the SEC and is targeting a listing on Nasdaq around 12 June at a valuation of roughly $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion. Anthropic, the Claude maker, is targeting an October debut that could raise more than $60 billion on a $1trillion market cap.
OpenAI, despite being the most recognisable name in generative AI, filed its confidential S-1 only on 22 May and is targeting a fourth-quarter listing, possibly as early as September, at a valuation of between $852 billion and $1 trillion.
The Polymarket data illustrates just how back-loaded the probability distribution is. The chance of an OpenAI listing by the end of June sits at just 1%, by the end of July at 2%, and by the end of August at 4%. The odds do not meaningfully concentrate until the fourth quarter, with a 24% chance by the end of September, jumping to 70% by 31 December.
A confidential filing is only the first step in a months-long process. The SEC reviews the draft privately, sends comments, and the company works through revisions before the S-1 is made public at least 15 days before the roadshow begins.
Any complications in that back-and-forth, or a deterioration in market conditions, could easily push the timeline into next year.
The financial picture adds a further layer of uncertainty. OpenAI is generating roughly $2 billion per month in revenue, with an annualised run rate of around $25 billion, but the company is deeply unprofitable, with internal projections showing a $14 billion operating loss in 2026. It does not expect positive cash flow until around 2030.
That stands in contrast to Anthropic, which has seen its annualised revenue surge to $30 billion as of April, up from $9 billion at the end of 2025, and is closing a $50 billion funding round at a valuation of between $850 billion and $900 billion ahead of its planned October listing.
Together, SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI represent more than $3 trillion in combined valuation, an unprecedented concentration of private capital preparing to hit public markets within the space of a few months.
Being last to market means competing for investor attention and allocation against two companies that will already be trading, with publicly audited financials and established market benchmarks against which OpenAI's own numbers will be measured.