Hims & Hers Health (NYSE: HIMS) faces a demanding customer acquisition challenge to hit its 2026 revenue guidance amid rising churn risks tied to its oral Wegovy subscription model, Bank of America said.
Analysts estimate HIMS would need to add approximately 225,000 new oral Wegovy subscribers per quarter from the second through fourth quarters of 2026 to reach the midpoint of its full-year sales guidance. That figure represents roughly 45% of all projected new US oral Wegovy cash-pay patients, a threshold BofA describes as "a high bar."
The challenge is compounded by a pricing step-up in the company's subscription model, which moves from $39 in the first month to $149 in subsequent months. BofA analysts said this dynamic is likely to drive elevated churn, creating what they estimate will be an $85 million compounding revenue headwind by the fourth quarter of 2026 as grandfathered patients leave the platform.
Under a more muted churn scenario, with a headwind of around $25 million, the analysts suggest HIMS could achieve its guidance with a lower market capture rate of approximately 35%.
The total addressable pool for oral Wegovy cash-pay patients could grow substantially, with BofA projecting roughly 1.5 million incremental patients from the second through fourth quarters, or around 170,000 new cash-pay patients per month based on consensus and BofA's own Novo Nordisk analyst estimates.
April data offered a degree of encouragement. BSM data cited in the note showed HIMS' share of new observed telehealth customers rebounding to approximately 46% in April, recovering from a range of 29% to 34% seen between January and March. BofA noted that HIMS has historically captured 40% to 50% of new customers in this segment, but cautioned that sustaining that level through the second half will be difficult given the churn dynamics at play.
Retention remains the pivotal variable in the GLP-1 model, analysts said. IQVIA data indicates branded Wegovy persistence is low, with retention of around 42% by month six. BofA's own waterfall model assumes approximately 53% retention by month three and 22% by month six, broadly consistent with those findings.
Early cohort data from competitor Ro showed returning customers picking up following the oral Wegovy launch, which analysts flagged as a positive signal. However, they cautioned that Ro's numbers are likely to skew more favorably given insurance acceptance and more stringent patient screening, factors that do not translate directly to HIMS' cash-pay model.
BofA reiterated a Neutral rating and cut its price objective to $25 from $28.