The AI infrastructure boom remains one of the market’s biggest investment themes, but investors appear to be becoming more selective about how — and when — that growth translates into earnings.
Shares in data centre-linked infrastructure groups Infratil Ltd (ASX:IFT) and Goodman Group (ASX:GMG) were both down on Tuesday after fresh earnings and operational updates, despite the companies doubling down on the long-term growth outlook for AI-driven digital infrastructure.
New Zealand-based Infratil shares had dropped nearly 6% as of 1:30 pm AEST, while Goodman Group was down about 2.5% after reaffirming rather than upgrading guidance.
The moves highlighted a growing reality for the market’s AI trade: investors remain enthusiastic about long-term demand for digital infrastructure, but expectations have become increasingly difficult to beat.
AI demand drives Infratil growth
Infratil’s annual result leaned heavily into the AI infrastructure narrative.
The infrastructure investor reported FY26 proportionate operational EBITDAF of NZ$989 million, up 11% year-on-year, with growth driven primarily by its CDC data centre business and US renewable energy platform Longroad Energy.
Chief executive Jason Boyes described demand for AI infrastructure as potentially “the investment opportunity of a lifetime”.
CDC — now operating more than 1 gigawatt of contracted data centre capacity — is forecasting EBITDAF growth of more than 150% to above A$1 billion by FY28.
The company noted that CDC recently secured Australasia’s largest-ever data centre contract, helping push contracted capacity beyond 1GW.
Infratil also highlighted broader demand drivers emerging across its portfolio, including renewable energy generation tied to hyperscale computing and data centre expansion.
Longroad Energy said US electricity demand growth linked to data centres, electrification and manufacturing could rise by 30% to 50% by 2040.
The business is now progressing plans for more than 4GW of grid-connected data centres co-located with solar and battery projects.
Big growth comes with big capital spending
That growth, however, is coming with a substantial capital bill.
CDC’s FY26 capital expenditure rose to A$2.11 billion, while Infratil flagged group-wide proportionate capital expenditure of NZ$3.8 billion to NZ$4.4 billion for FY27.
The company also pointed to rising investment needs across its renewable energy operations, with Longroad Energy targeting an increase in development cadence to roughly 2GW annually.
Even so, Infratil reaffirmed confidence in the long-term outlook, forecasting FY27 proportionate operational EBITDAF growth of 21% at the midpoint.
Despite the strong guidance, the market reaction suggested investors may now be weighing the scale of ongoing spending against the pace at which AI-linked revenues materialise.
Goodman doubles down on data centres
Goodman Group’s quarterly update painted a similarly bullish picture for AI infrastructure demand, even as investors appeared underwhelmed by unchanged earnings guidance.
The industrial property giant reaffirmed FY26 operating EPS growth of at least 9%, despite market expectations for a potential upgrade.
Still, the operational numbers underscored just how central data centres have become to Goodman’s strategy. Data centres now account for 73% of Goodman’s A$14.5 billion work-in-progress development pipeline.
The group said its global “power bank” — effectively reserved and secured electricity capacity for future data centre developments — had expanded to 6.4GW, including 3.6GW of secured power.
Goodman said customer demand continued shifting towards metropolitan, low-latency markets as AI models move from training to inferencing workloads closer to end users.
Power constraints emerge as key issue
Both companies also pointed to what is becoming one of the defining issues in the AI infrastructure race: power availability.
Goodman warned energy access remained “the most significant constraint” on delivering digital infrastructure at the scale customers require.
The company said the scale of investment needed to support future data centre demand could eventually exceed the funding capacity of global capital markets.
Infratil struck a similar tone, increasingly linking renewable energy investment with future computing demand as AI workloads drive electricity consumption higher.
For the market, Tuesday’s updates reinforced how rapidly AI is reshaping infrastructure investment — extending the trade well beyond chipmakers and software firms into power systems, industrial property and hyperscale data centres.
The long-term demand story remains largely intact. But as valuations climb and spending requirements escalate, investors appear to be asking tougher questions about timing, execution and returns.