Okta Inc (NASDAQ:OKTA) is expected to top its first-quarter contracted revenue growth target when the identity security company reports results on May 28, though second-quarter guidance may fall short of Wall Street expectations, Jefferies said in a research note.
The firm maintained its Buy rating and $105 price target on Okta, saying its value at roughly four times next-12-month revenue remains compelling even after the stock has rallied 36% since April 10.
Okta guided first-quarter current remaining performance obligations, or cRPO, to grow roughly 9.8% year over year at the midpoint to $2.445 billion. Jefferies said it expects the company to beat that target by approximately 2%, pointing to easier year-ago comparisons, positive field work on identity demand, and a proprietary value-added reseller survey showing seasonal trends consistent with prior first quarters.
The firm was more cautious on the second quarter, however. Jefferies noted that Okta historically guides to a very similar sequential dollar change in second-quarter cRPO as it reports in the first quarter. Assuming 12% cRPO growth in Q1 and a consistent sequential pattern, the implied Q2 guidance would be roughly 9.4% year-over-year growth, below the consensus expectation of 10%. Jefferies said it expects management to guide to a 9% to 10% range.
On full-year revenue, Jefferies said consensus expectations of $3.18 billion, representing 9% growth, appear achievable.
On artificial intelligence, the firm said adoption of Okta's agentic identity products remains early and has so far translated more into customer conversations than material revenue.
Jefferies said it will be watching for updates on Okta's work with frontier AI labs and for pricing details around the "Okta for AI Agents" platform, which became generally available on April 30. It will also monitor traction in "Auth0 for AI Agents," which launched in November 2025, as a gauge of the health of Okta's customer identity business.