- FTSE 100 up 6 points at 10,330
- UK jobs data weakens, unemployment back to 5%
- IG Group, Diploma, Currys, Dr Martens, SSP, Cranswick among reporters
5.30pm: Stocks little changed
As US stocks came under pressure, the FTSE 100 edged higher to finish the session up 6 points at 10,330.
“European stock indices began the day on a strong footing, adding to Monday's solid gains on hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East, but were dragged down by their US peers.
“These came under pressure after the US 10-year Treasury yield rallied to a 16-month high and the 30-year yield to levels last seen in July 2007.”
4.04pm: FTSE in the red momentarily
The FTSE dropped into the red but has popped back up now, with some other European stock markets down but Germany's DAX in positive territory.
Miners have been the big drag on the London blue-chip index today, with Fresnillo and Antofagasta both down around 4%, followed by Endeavour and Anglo American down nearer 3.4%.
Top riser is IG Group, still up almost 10%, while Diploma has eased off, now at 3.2%. Other leading gainers are Airtel Africa, up 7%, 3i Group at 5.6%, Sage, Smith & Nephew, Rightmove, Experian and Burberry.
On the mid-caps, Currys is up 13.4%, with Dr Martens next, up 6.2%, after both released numbers this morning.
As for recent developments, Donald Trump has been making some comments on the Gulf situation, saying the US "may need to give Iran another big hit".
Speaking to reporters at the White House, he says. Tehran is begging to make a deal.
Oil prices have been up and down in the past few hours. Brent, which was $109 overnight, is now up at $110.7 a barrel.
3.14pm: BA delays Dubai flight resumption
Shares in IAG are down 1.8% after British Airways has delayed the return of flights to certain Middle East locations.
Flights to and from Dubai, Doha and Tel Aviv will not resume before 1 August, the company said.
"Due to the ongoing situation in the Middle East, we have made further changes to our flying schedule to provide greater clarity for our customers," a BA spokesperson said in a statement.
The airline plans to reduce flights to the region once they eventually resume, with services including Riyadh and Doha dropping to one daily flight.
2.50pm: US stocks open lower
US stocks have opened in the red, and the FTSE 100 has been dragged lower too.
The Dow Jones and S&P 500 dropped 0.5%, with the more tech-packed Nasdaq down 0.6%. The small cap Russell 2000 is faring the worst, down 1.4%.
Back in London, miners and Asia-focused banks are the main fallers.
2pm: The Japanese yen and bonds and why they matter
The USD/JPY has resumed its steady climb since Japan intervened at the end of April and, so speculation goes, in early May.
"Since then, price action has turned more constructive," says market analyst Fawad Razaqzada at Forex.com, particularly after topping the "key" 158 level.
"The Japanese yen continues to struggle despite periods of softer dollar trading, reinforcing concerns that markets are becoming increasingly comfortable testing Japanese authorities’ tolerance for further weakness."
The Japanese 10-year yield has pushing above the 2.80% mark, amidst rising oil prices fuel inflation and Bank of Japan rate hike expectations.
Japanese yields matter to the entire world, says Ipek Ozkardeskaya at Swissquote, as Japan is one of the largest foreign holders of US Treasuries.
"For years, Japanese investors such as pension funds and insurance companies bought US government bonds because yields in Japan were extremely low – often close to zero – making US bonds far more attractive in comparison.
"But that changes when Japanese government bond yields rise. If the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield climbs toward the 1.75–1.77% range, domestic bonds start becoming attractive again for major Japanese institutions: they can earn a decent return at home without taking the currency risk, hedging costs, or overseas exposure that comes with holding US Treasuries.
"That matters because if large Japanese investors start shifting even part of their money back into domestic bonds, demand for US Treasuries could weaken, potentially putting upward pressure on US yields. And we see this morning that the US 10-year yield is pushing past 4.60% – the highest in a year."
Ozkardeskaya notes that China, another major UST holder, also joined the global selloff in US Treasuries in March amid rising geopolitical tensions.
"Beyond the Iran war, China has been reducing the risk of holding US Treasuries for years, replacing part of its UST reserves with gold. The latter – echoed by other central banks – is expected to maintain gold’s positive longer-term trend."
1.32pm: Buy bonds, says UBS
Some notable notes from today's City offering.
UBS has suggested investors buy both government bonds and equities despite a sharp global sell-off in government debt triggered by inflation fears stemming from the war in the Middle East.
Recent rises in bond yields have created an “appealing risk-return profile”, UBS chief investment officer Mark Haefele says, with the bank also maintaining a positive outlook for global stock markets.
"Yield volatility is likely to pick up further the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, with markets pricing the upside risks to inflation and tighter monetary policies across the world," Haefele adds.
"But we maintain the view that quality bonds offer an appealing risk-return profile given the two-sided risks on inflation and growth. We also do not expect higher yields to derail the current equity rally."
As for some bond-like stocks, ie utilities, his UBS colleagues say UK utility shares face a potentially extended period of political pressure after suffering their fourth-largest single-day decline since privatisation.
The Swiss bank warns that the last two comparable episodes where investors worried about government intervention risk took around two years to clear.
The sector fell 7.5% on 15 May, nearly three times the 2.8% decline across continental European utilities, in a move UBS attributed to a sharp rise in gilt yields and growing concerns about the future ownership structure of the industry.
Elsewhere, proposals to cap the price of staple foods in Scotland have been branded “hare-brained” by Shore Cap's Clive Black, who got into his food puns by warning the SNP policy could reduce investment, limit consumer choice and create “administrative spaghetti”.
In a fairly blistering note, the analyst compared the proposed “Fair Price Plan” to policies more commonly seen in “a severely struggling less developed nation”, as the SNP proposed legislation next year that would set maximum prices on up to 50 food staples, including products such as bread and milk, as part of its 2026 election manifesto.
Black argued the policy misunderstood the causes of food inflation, which he said stemmed largely from higher energy prices, labour costs, regulation and commodity shocks following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
12.35pm: FTSE firmly in green, while Wall Street signals red
The FTSE 100 and other European stock markets remain firmly in positive territory as the US begins to wake up.
London's blue-chips are up 0.6%, compared to 1.2% in Frankfurt, 0.7% in Paris and 0.7% for the pan-European Stoxx 600.
IG Group leads the Euro Stoxx risers, up over 10%, followed by German software company Nemetschek and Swedish gambling technology group Evolution Gaming.
Defence stocks remained in demand, with Hensoldt up nearly 8% as investors continued to back the sector on expectations of higher European military spending, (with the Footsie's BAE up 2.25% and Babcock down 0.2%).
Cranswick gained more than 6% after the chicken and pig producer grew sales 9.5% and earnings 14.5%.
Wall Street futures are in the red, though, with the Nasdaq seen falling 0.6%, the S&P 500 0.4% and the Dow Jones 0.2%.
The US dollar remains stronger across the board as we ticked into the afternoon.
"It was fortunate to be in demand on the back of rising US Treasury yields," says market analyst David Morrison at Trade Nation.
"The oil price remains elevated, and this is feeding through into inflation numbers around the globe. But the dollar remains top dog as traders price in an increased possibility that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged this year or even nudge them higher."
He says US stocks are down due to the recent sharp rise in US Treasury yields, as oil prices have "shown little sign of retreating".
Front-month WTI remains above $108 per barrel, which is feeding through into inflation, with last week seeing both the CPI and PPI come in hotter-than-expected.
Yields on the 10-year Treasury hitting their highest level since February 2025, up from below 4.0% in February this year, has in particular led to the tech sector, and semiconductors in particular, being hit, says Morrison.
11.57am: Activist push at Porvair
Shares in Porvair, a filtration products group, are up almost 4% after Sky News says an activist is pushing for change.
Activist investor Richard Bernstein, who has a small personal stake, is urging the board to look at putting the company up for sale.
This follows a recent 'bloody nose' at the AGM, where 24% voted against chairman John Nicholas's re-election.
Sky says Bernstein, founder and former investment manager of Crystal Amber, has written to Nicholas to urge him to explore strategic alternatives for the company.
Bernstein argues Porvair is "an attractive business currently valued by the stock market at substantially below its strategic value" and the board should aim to "release value by actively engaging in strategic alternatives".
11.19am: Road to Wall Street clear for Altman and Musk after court verdict
A nice update on the upcoming IPOs of OpenAI and SpaceX, after Elon Musk's case against the company he co-founded was dismissed last night.
This removed the last significant obstacle between Sam Altman and what is expected to be a $1 trillion initial public offering later this year.
The verdict came at a critical time for both Musk and Altman, as each pushes a flagship company toward the public markets in what are expected to be record-breaking listings.
But Bloomberg, in a comment piece, says there is an "ever-darkening cloud" over Altman’s suitability.
“.. If there’s one thing of any value to take from the trial, it’s the ever-darkening cloud over Altman’s suitability .. “.. Especially telling was .. just how many of Altman’s earliest allies now seem to want little to do with him.” @bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla.bsky.social) May 19, 2026 at 10:51 AM
10.49am: Chris Hohn, DB and LSEG
Some readers might remember Sir Chris Hohn and his The Children's Investment fund, which were seen as instrumental in stopping the London Stock Exchange's merger with Deutsche Börse in 2004-2005.
Management tried to revive the deal in 2016/17, but a merger was rejected by competition regulators.
TCI judged the original 2004 combination as value-destructive, with the activist fund's push leading to the departure of DB's CEO and chairman, as well as a capital return.
TCI is now back on the German borse's register with a disclosed 5.15% stake.
In a note, Jefferies analyst Tom Mills says "history rhymes" as DB1 is undertaking a "nominally larger but non-transformative acquisition of Allfunds".
"TCI's agenda, if it has one, hasn't been made public so far, but we suspect it isn't merely a passenger."
Bloomberg reports a source close to TCI saying that it is not planning any activism, despite the timing raising eyebrows as Deutsche Börse pursues its largest-ever deal, while activist Elliott Management builds a position in LSEG.
9.54am: Stan Chart says it is replacing 'low value' human workers with AI
Standard Chartered has openly tied large-scale job cuts to the rise of AI, with chief executive Bill Winters saying automation would replace “lower-value human capital” across the business.
Shares in the Asia-focused lender are down 0.5%, which is unusual, as markets normally love to hear about job cuts.
The FTSE 100-listed lender said it plans to cut more than 15% of roles in corporate functions by 2030 as it pushes ahead with AI adoption and wider automation efforts. Based on current staffing levels, that equates to more than 7,000 jobs.
It is part of a broader strategy overhaul, with Stan Chart aiming to lift return on tangible equity (ROTE) to about 18% by 2030, up from 12% in 2025, while lowering its cost-to-income ratio to about 57%.
Winters told reporters the changes were “not cost-cutting” but part of a shift towards investing in technology and productivity.
“It’s replacing in some cases lower-value human capital with the financial capital and the investment capital we’re putting in,” he said.
Of course the whole game is about replacing labour with capital but it’s still startling when a CEO is so explicit about it. www.reuters.com/business/wor...
— Peter Thal Larsen (@petertl.bsky.social) May 19, 2026 at 9:13 AM
9.19am: European stocks gain, but mood is 'confused'
The FTSE 100 has continued to gain ground this morning.
Results from the likes of IG and Diploma is helping, but also the easing BoE rate expectations too.
Miners are a weight around the index, with Rio Tinto, Glencore and Antofagasta the leading fallers, down 1.8-1.7%, and Anglo American nearer 1% in arrears and precious metals producers Fresnillo and Endeavour down around 0.8%.
Housebuilders are down, despite the rate chat.
"It’s a rather strange, rather mixed and confused picture with various conflicting signals from the Middle East making it a tough read for traders," says Neil Wilson, market analyst at Saxo.
"Friday’s bond selloff has eased a bit, but it’s clear bond markets remain highly sensitive to inflation and fiscal risks."
"Offer and counteroffer, rumour upon report... it’s been the entire US-Iran milieu in microcosm the last 24 hours.
"With the trading week initially kicking off with yields up and equities down, European stock markets turned course and rallied while bond yields drifted down on reports of a possible de-escalation of the US-Iran situation, which had started to show signs of heating up over the weekend."
Brent crude oil futures are back over $110 a barrel.
Kathleen Brooks at XTB says "risk sentiment is mixed", as "investors weigh up the costs of the war in the Middle East".
She says Trump's comments that the US would not strike Iran and break the ceasefire today have not had much of an impact on oil prices.
"There is a sense of frustration that there has been no break in the impasse between the US and Iran and no clear path to a deal to end the war."
The FTSE's gains, plus a 1.25% jump for Germany's DAX and 0.9% for France's CAC, continuing the rally from the start of the week.
Europe's lesser tech exposure is "providing some resilience to the tech-led sell off in US stocks", says Brooks. "However, sentiment is expected to remain fragile, as bond yields are rising moderately this morning at the open."
8.54am: Diploma enjoys 'strong momentum'
Shares in Diploma rose 5.3% after the maker of specialised technical products delivered interim results that beat expectations and, with seven acquisitions made since the Q1 update, has also triggered its second guidance upgrade in three months.
The group reported 15% organic revenue growth in the six months to 31 March, an operating margin of 24.5%, earnings growth of 36%, and returns on capital of 22.7%.
Analyst Sam Dindol at Stifel says, by sector, Controls is "the standout", with 26% organic growth and operating margins up 430 basis points, while Seals organic growth was 2% and Life Sciences 4%.
"This is another strong update from Diploma, highlighting the strong momentum in the business. The shares are trading on a one-year forward P/E of circa 29.3x, slightly above the five-year average and within the range of quality compounding peers."
8.33am: The Bank of England may not need to hike
More economists are coming out in agreement that the jobs data casts significant doubt on whether the Bank of England will need to hike interest rates in June or July to counter inflationary pressures from the Iran war.
ING economist James Smith says the "dreadfrul" jobs report "questions the need for Bank of England rate hikes”.
He says the rising unemployment, sharply lower payrolls and tumbling wage growth "is a reminder that the economy is much less susceptible to 'second round' effects from the incoming energy shock" compared to the price spirals seen during the 2022 energy crisis.
Rob Wood at Pantheon Macroeconomics says the data gives the Bank's monetary policy committee some dovish avidence and "wipes out the lingering chance of a hike at the June policy meeting", as the previous indications that the labour market could be holding up well in the first couple of months after the Iran war have been challenged.
"Pay growth now provides key dovish evidence for the MPC, and puts in doubt a July rate hike too," he adds.
Thomas Pugh, economist at RSM UK, said weaker employment and slowing pay growth would “temper the need for aggressive rate hikes” as workers were now in a weaker position to demand higher wages to offset rising energy bills.
ING's Smith says his team has been "tentatively" forecasting a one-and-done rate hike in June and while that remains the base case, ("mainly because our house view on energy prices, particularly for natural gas, and given that the Strait of Hormuz is showing little sign of reopening") this is "a close call" and "a lot will also depend on tomorrow’s inflation data".
8.15am: FTSE 100 opens higher
The FTSE 100 has climbed 51 points in initial trading to 10,375.
Top of the early leaderboard is online broker IG Group, up 7% after reporting a strong first quarter.
Diploma is next, up 6.2% as the engineer reported half-year results.
On the FTSE 250, Currys and Dr Martens are both up over 6% too.
8am: Jobs data to keep BoE handbrake on
Today's jobs market data will keep the Bank of England from raising rates, says Sanjay Raja, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank.
There were three big surprises in today's number, he says, with the unemployment rate ticking back up to 5%, a "mammoth" fall of 100k payrolled employees in the flash HMRC estimate, though Raja says this payrolled data tends to be revised significantly.
"But the sheer fall in payrolled employees will stop any MPC member thinking about tightening monetary policy (at least for now)."
"Third, in even better news for the Bank of England, wage growth continues to recede – and recede faster than it anticipated."
Average weekly private sector earnings slowed to 3%, a tenth lower than the BoE anticipated, which "will drag on domestic inflation, meaning that the MPC could be tempted to look past the unfolding energy shock".
Raja says the labour market "won’t get any better over the coming months", as geopolitical uncertainty will be amplified by domestic political uncertainty, with firms expected to limit hiring over the coming months as cost pressures mount.
7.54am: Dr Martens and Currys
A couple of company stories from different corners of the FTSE 250 retail scene.
Dr Martens returned to profit growth last year as the bootmaker tightened discounting, improved margins and pushed ahead with a turnaround centred on higher-quality sales.
The boots, shoes and handbags group reported an adjusted pre-tax profit of £55 million in the year to 29 March, up 61% on the year before, while revenue fell 2.9% to £764.9 million.
Elsewhere, in a year-end trading update, Currys said it expects profits to beat guidance after strong trading in both the UK and Nordic markets helped it gain market share.
The electricals retailer said adjusted pre-tax profit for the year to 2 May is expected to be about £191 million, up 18% on the previous year and ahead of recently indicated guidance of £180-190 million.
7.25am: Oil prices volatile over US-Iran reports
Oil prices are down this morning, with Brent crude off 2% at just below $110 a barrel, having spent a volatile day yesterday jumping between two-week highs above $112 and below $108 as various reports filtered through from the US and Iran.
It led to a mixed 24 hours, says Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid, with 10yr Treasury yields stabilising after touching their highest level in over a year at 4.63%.
"The broader market mood is on the cautious side this morning," says Reid, exactly six weeks into the ceasefire, following five and a half weeks of strikes.
"While my base case is that the absence of kinetic activity would not have persisted this long without US intent to secure a deal, the lack of an agreement, despite several false dawns, remains a source of nervousness."
Trump claimed last night that he had called off an attack against Iran that had been scheduled for today after an appeal by leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and UAE.
In the same post, Trump also said that he ordered the US military to be ready for 'a full, large scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice, in the event that an acceptable deal is not reached'.
Trump later said that he was asked to put off new strikes "for two or three days" as allies thought "they are getting very close to making a deal", while continuing to stress the US aim that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons.
Iran's Tasnim agency reported that Tehran felt the US had "excessive demands and unrealistic positions", while Axios cited a senior US official who said the White House thought Iran’s latest proposal was not sufficient for a deal.
7.17am: FTSE 100 called higher
The FTSE 100 was called higher on Tuesday as UK jobs data was published and US President Donald Trump said he had called off planned new strikes against Iran as intermediated negotiaions progressed.
A gain of around 35 points was indicated on the futures market for the London blue-chip index, which yesterday turned an early 37-point deficit into a gain of 128 points by the close at 10,323.75.
US stocks were mixed overnight, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropping 0.5%, the S&P 500 just below flat and the blue-chip Dow Jones rising 0.3%.
Asian markets are also mixed this morning, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng and the Shanghai Composite both up around 0.4-0.5%, while Japan's Nikkei is down 0.7%.
UK wage growth remained sticky in March, data from the Office for National Statistics showed, but the labour market showed further signs of cooling, keeping investors unsure about what the Bank of England will do with interest rates this summer.
The unemployment rate rose to 5.0% from 4.9% for March, while average wages excluding bonuses rose 3.4% in the three months to March, in line with forecasts.
Claimant count numbers increased by 26,500 in April and payrolled employment fell by 100,000, far worse than the 10,000 decline expected by economists.