- FTSE 100 up 108 points to 10,303
- Anglo American sells coking coal assets
- US agrees temp lift of Iran sanctions
- Bonds remain elevated for major economies
4.06pm: Some FTSE gains trimmed
It's set to be a fairly good day for the FTSE 100, with a hundred-point gain on the cards.
The more domestically focused mid-cap index, the FTSE 250, is meanwhile roughly flat.
Global names on the blue-chip list such as Pearson, RELX, Bunzl, Experian, Compass, Imperial Brands, IAG, Shell and BP are what's driving the big gain.
The index had been at a 140-point gain not long ago, as oil prices dropped on reports from Iran that the US seemed to be agreeing to some of Tehran's concessions in negotiations.
However, oil has spiked back up, with Brent dropping from around $110 earliert to below $108 and now back up to almost $111 a barrel.
It could be this post from Donald Trump, perhaps:
3.31pm: Lloyds getting rid of Halifax brand
Lloyds Banking Group is reported to be about to scrap the Halifax brand.
A spokesperson said the group regularly looks at its brands but emphasised that there are no changes for customers as of today.
Financial adviser Ben Perks at Orchard Financial Advisers says the brand would be missed if reports are true.
"Halifax are a bit like your favourite jumper. It's a brand that makes people feel safe and secure, one that is much-loved brand and has dominated the high street for many years," he says, per
"As the brand gets swallowed up by Lloyds, borrowers will feel like their choice of lenders is reducing, yet again."
3.12pm: Defence sector and life insurers in focus
Some broker notes worth flagging.
UK defence stocks could regain momentum once the long-delayed Defence Investment Plan is finally published, according to Jefferies, which said the sector still offers some of the strongest long-term growth prospects in the London market.
Quantum computing breakthroughs are accelerating faster than previously expected and could pose a serious near-term threat to cryptocurrency security, according to Citi.
Aviva's core insurance and wealth businesses are performing solidly, though intensifying competition in the lucrative pension risk transfer market is beginning to squeeze margins, according to RBC Capital Markets.
RBC also sees growth opportunities for rival Standard Life's retail business becoming the key focus following the acquisition of Aegon UK.
2.59pm: New York opens mostly higher, while FTSE flies
US stocks have opened higher and the FTSE 100 is flying now too, with only two stocks in the top 30 largest companies not in green.
Top risers in London are IAG, RELX, Pearson and Rolls-Royce - ie a lot that have been hit by the Iran war or AI worries.
Across the pond, the Dow Jones is uip 145 points or 0.3% since opening, with the S&P 500 0.2% higher and the Nasdaq just 1.5 points in positive territory.
Top risers on the Dow are 3M, Salesforce and Travelers Companies, while fallers are led by Caterpillar, UnitedHealth and Chevron,
On the tech-heavy Nasdaq, the biggest fallers include Strategy (down 10%), Seagate Technology, Applied Materials and Western Digital, while among the Mag 7 giants, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Broadcom, Tesla and Meta are in red.
2.29pm:
The IMF's upgrading of the UK economy is "a (very) welcome respite for the UK economy," says economist George Lagarias at Forvis Mazars.
The IMF upgraded GDP growth prospects for 2026 from 0.8% to 1%, citing economic resilience and better-than-expected growth earlier in the year.
"With that said, the upgrade is mostly a backward-looking one, and would probably contribute little to changing monetary policy or improving borrowing costs."
The IMF cites significant challenges to growth and inflation if the Hormuz Strait remains closed for much longer, it should be noted.
Looking at the currency markets, analyst Fawad Razaqzada at Capital.com agrees that the main concerns surrounding the UK and US economy are government borrowing costs, which are to a large degree based on the Iran war driving energy prices and leading to inflation.
Markets are very sensitive about UK political instability at a time when the economy is "already vulnerable to higher energy costs", due to Britain’s reliance on imported energy.
"Elevated crude prices and continued disruption around the Strait of Hormuz threaten to deepen inflationary pressures while simultaneously weakening consumer demand and business confidence. Against this backdrop, the sellers could come back on any meaningful rebounds like the one we have seen today."
2.02pm: Buy one UK big pharma, leave one
AstraZeneca is the top UK-listed pharmaceutical stock in Citi's good books as it reiterated a positive stance on the European sector, keeping a more cautious view on GSK.
Citi said AZ remained its preferred UK name, arguing the recent 10% fall in the shares had gone too far given the scale of upcoming late-stage trial catalysts and the strength of its pipeline. Analysts see around 32% upside on the FTSE giant.
By contrast, there is just a neutral view on GSK, with analyst Graham Parry warning that despite improving pipeline momentum and recent dealmaking, the group still faces a significant patent cliff in its HIV business.
He cut his target price to £21 from £23 and said looming loss-of-exclusivity risks continued to dominate the investment case.
Citi has also been keeping track of GLP weight-loss drug sales. Novo Nordisk's oral version of its blockbuster Wegovy continues to outpace its main competitor despite a slight weekly decline in prescriptions, according to Citi's latest tracking data.
1.35pm: New York futures improving
US stock futures are in the red, where Wall Styreet ended last week.
Dow Jones futures are down around 0.3%, while those for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are closer to flat.
All three majors closed Friday more than 1% lower, with the Nasdaq leading the retreat by shedding 1.5% as traders cut exposure to technology and AI-linked shares ahead of Nvidia earnings this week.
Futures continue to improve after being sharply lower overnight.
Last week was broadly negative for New York stock, notes David Morrison at Trade Nation, as investor caution was ramped up by US inflation readings coming in significantly hotter-than-expected.
"This contributed to a surge in bond yields in a move which saw the key 10-year Treasury Note plunge as its yield topped 4.63%, its highest level since February last year.
"This is bad news, particularly considering the high levels of federal, corporate and domestic debt. There was also disappointment over the Trump administration’s trip to Beijing.
"The only significant announcement came from Chinese Premier Xi Jinping, when he effectively told the US to butt out of Taiwan of face the consequences.
"If there was any progress made in discussions about AI, trade, tariffs, the US/Iran war, energy or rare earths, no one was shouting their heads off about it, which is unusual."
12.50pm: US agrees to lift Iran sanctions, report says
The FTSE 100 has spiked in the past half hour, as Iranian newswires suggest there has been some movement in the US-Iran negotiations, where Pakistan is acting as the go-between.
Washington "has accepted the lifting of Iran's oil sanctions in its new text," the semi-official Tasnim agency reports.
Waiving the sections means a temporary lifting of the sanctions, the report said, though Iran insists that the removal of all sanctions must be part of the US commitments.
The US has proposed a temporary waiver by the Office of Foreign Assets Control until the final agreement.
On the FTSE, all but six of the top 25 largest companies are in green, with BAT, Rolls, National Grid, BAE Systems and RELX are all up over 1%.
12.39am: IMF says UK economy still facing risks
In its UK report, the IMF has suggested the Bank of England keeping the current level of interest rates for the remainder of the year "should be sufficient to bring inflation back to target by end-2027".
The fund warned that the Iran conflict has complicated the outlook, with higher oil and gas prices expected to push UK inflation to just below 4% by the end of this year before easing during 2027.
The IMF also cautioned that risks to growth remain tilted to the downside, particularly if the conflict drags on and keeps energy prices elevated for longer, hurting consumer spending and business investment.
On a more long-term view, in light of the "major productivity growth slowdown" since the global financial crisis, government work to improve investment, reforms, and stability is focused on "the right areas".
However, the report says, "the economic and fiscal payoff from the structural reforms will materialize only gradually, and credibility will ultimately hinge on sustained implementation, staying the course through inevitable lags and trade-offs, and relying on systematic monitoring and evaluation to course-correct where needed".
12.21pam: IMF ups UK growth forecasts
UK growth forecast for 2026 have been raised to 1.0% from 0.8% by the International Monetary Fund, citing the economy’s “strong pre-war momentum” and a robust first quarter, when GDP expanded by 0.6%.
The IMF said the UK economy had remained resilient despite the impact of the Middle East conflict, though higher energy prices are expected to push inflation higher temporarily and delay a return to the Bank of England’s 2% target by around a year.
Before the US and Israel started their war on Iran, the IMF was projecting 1.3% growth for the UK.
"While the UK economy has remained resilient in recent years, the war in the Middle East is dampening near-term prospects," the report says.
Growth is projected to "gradually recover as the shock dissipates.
"Higher energy prices are expected to push inflation up temporarily and delay the return to the central bank’s target by about one year."
12.03am: What this week has in store
Looking ahead to the rest of the week, the biggest company reporting event is Nvidia on Wednesday night.
It "can hold up or let down the entire market", says market analyst Neil Wilson at Saxo of the $5.5 trillion market cap company.
"The print will be crucial for market sentiment after a rip higher across the tech, semiconductor and memory stocks sectors on AI optimism."
The AI trade remains a powerful driver for market returns with soaring demand across the sector expected to show up in another bumper earnings report from Jensen Huang and co.
"The focus will be on AI infrastructure demand durability and broadening, the Blackwell ramp and Rubin rollout, plus guidance around supply chains and lead times," says Wilson.
The Street consensus is for revenues of $78.5 billion, driven by the Data Centre segment, which is seen growing around 35% on last year.
Elsewhere, we have the global flash PMIs on Thursday, along with more inflation data from major economies, namely Canada tomorrow, UK on Wednesday and Japan on Friday.
In central bank news, the market highlight will be the FOMC minutes on Wednesday.
"Those flash PMIs will be important," says Deutsche Bank, "as they’re one of the first indicators on how the global economy has performed this month, so will be scrutinised for any signs of how the war in Iran is impacting activity and prices."
11.21am: Bond market slightly reassured by latest political jawboning
What might have relaxed UK government bond investors is one of the developments over the weekend.
Manchester mayor Andy Burnham, seen by many as the favourite in a potential Labour leadership contest, retreated from some of his controversial remarks regarding the gilts market.
In an interview over the weekend, Burnham committed to sticking to Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ fiscal rules in an effort to reduce bond market jitters, where yields had surged in recent weeks, with the 10-year gilt rising to the highest level since 2008, while sterling slumped to a five-week low.
Market analyst Kathleen Brooks at XTB says: £Burnham stated clearly that he now supports fiscal rules and agreed that the UK needs a plan to reduce its debt burden.
£The markets might be skeptical of Burnham, however, his comments tell us two things: 1, the bond market holds significant sway over UK politicians, and 2, if he does manage to replace Starmer, and it is a big if, he could commit to keeping Rachel Reeves in place, and UK fiscal policy may not differ too much from what we already have."
Brooks says Reeves seems like "the only cabinet member who looks like their job is secure", having had the bond market on her side since Labour won the election in 2024.
The fight to replace Keir Starmer also looks like it will reopen Brexit wounds, Brooks notes, as Wes Streeting pins his leadership run on the UK rejoining the EU.
"In the same interview, Burnham hinged his economic vision around gaining greater control of public services, such as utilities, energy, housing and water services.
"He did not mention anything about more tax rises or greater welfare spending, which is toxic for majority of voters, according to recent polls.
"Instead he said that he wants to build an enhanced growth plan for the UK on a bedrock of fiscal stability. This sounds more like Reeves’ playbook compared to his prior comments."
11.08am: Whitbread investors unsure about activist reaction
Whitbread is another FTSE 100 stock moving all over the place this morning, up 3.7% earlier and now down 1.2%.
This follows activist investor Corvex Management coming out and putting pressure on the Premier Inn owner to put itself up for sale, attacking its "chronic misallocation of capital".
Corvex, which owns around a 7% stake, has responded after Whitbread's strategy update last month, where the board outlined plans for a sale and leaseback of many of its hotels and cutting nearly 4,000 jobs.
In a letter to the board, managing partner Keith Meister wrote that the activist firm will nominate its own set of directors for a board takeover if Whitbread refuses to commit to a sale.
"Whitbread’s persistent structural complexity and chronic misallocation of capital have delivered double-digit negative returns across every reasonable investment horizon – one, three, five, and ten years," he points out.
"We have raised these concerns directly and repeatedly with the board and management, yet rather than undertaking the substantive strategic change the situation demands, they have remained anchored to the status quo."
Meister says the sale-and-leaseback proposal would waste the income from "valuable freehold assets" and use the funds for "highly uncertain" growth investments.
10.20am: Investing trend 'counterintuitive'
So far this year, "many we speak to find it somewhat counterintuitive", says JPMorgan, that European cyclicals, value and small caps are the three leading performers, some even increasing this lead despite the Iran conflict in the backdrop.
In the US, cyclical sectors (ie mining and oil, financials, industrials, builders and leisure) are also ahead in the year-to-date, with cyclicals and defensives leading in both regions even when tech/AI impact is fully stripped out from the comparison.
The bank's strategists warn that this rally in cyclical and value stocks looks to be getting ahead of economic reality, with weakening business activity data suggesting momentum could fade in the near term.
As an alternative, they said utilities, consumer staples and pharmaceuticals "could look good, along with staples and pharma".
9.38am: Kainos searching for direction
Shares in Kainos have been all over the place this morning, up 2.7% to down 4.3% after the FTSE 250 IT services and cloud software firm reported results.
They were "a bit better than consensus expectations", says Stifel analyst Peter McNally, with City forecasts having risen from 10% to 15% growth at the trading statement, with the final number coming in at 17% growth to £431.1 million.
Adjusted PBT was up 2% to £67.1 million, which McNally says is slightly better than consensus, with the required use of contractors pushing the margin to 16% from 18% last year and "we would expect this to rise with continued strong hiring".
"Bookings are up 32% which is well beyond our expectations and the backlog is up 18%.
"As we roll into FY27E, the shares appear excellent value to us at an ex-cash PE of 14.8x," says the analyst.
9.07am: FTSE flat
Defensive stocks are helping prop up the FTSE 100, which has just crawled its way onto dry land, up a small handful of points after the first hour of trading of the week at 10,200.
Nicotine giants Imperial Brands and BAT are top of the early leaderboard, with utilities and oil giants Shell and BP not far behind.
Investors 3i Group, housebuilders Persimmon and Barratt, paper maker Mondi and miner Anglo American are the top five fallers.
"Inflation concerns" are what are globally driving markets lower, says market analyst Richard Hunter at Interactive Investor, with the pressure being exerted by the mighty bond market.
"With Treasury yields now around 5% and the oil price finding further strength given the latest round of harsh rhetoric from the White House on the lack of progress with Iran, the strength of the rally is coming under pressure. Higher borrowing costs have also brought the size of the US budget deficit back into focus, with the costs of repayments soaring let alone the additional spend which has been necessary due to the conflict with Iran."
Similar pressures are in effect in the UK, although gilt yields are down slightly this morning.
Hunter says the Footsie has suffered from "financial attacks which have come from many angles", with and the index now more than 7% away from the record closing high set in late February, though still up 2.5% so far this year and "still providing a relatively stable backdrop".
8.36am: Bonds are the big story
More on rates and mortgages, from Peel Hunt economsit Kallum Pickering, who points out that "market bets for central banks are shifting even further towards expectations of rate hikes".
Markets are now anticipating that the US Federal Reserve will hike once before the end of the year, with three hikes priced in for the ECB and just over two and half hikes for the Bank of England.
"While these bets could unwind quickly if the US and Iran reach a deal, which would likely underpin a recovery in bond and equity markets, near-term risks are skewed to the downside," says Pickering.
"We need to watch out for a more pronounced equity market correction, especially in US tech, where some valuations remain lofty; the risk that the US escalates militarily in the hope of increasing pressure on Iran to strike a deal; and central banks, which seem reluctant to hike and add to downside risks, being forced to lift rates in order to restore stability in bond markets.
"UK gilt markets are likely to come under additional near-term pressure as investors factor in the uncertainty over the direction of fiscal policy, as potential contenders to Prime Minister Keir Starmer in the Labour Party begin to position themselves to challenge him."
Market analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya at Swissquote says the rapid selloff across sovereign bond markets, and resulting rise in yields is "the big story and dominant market driver" at the moment.
Bond yields in most major economies soared last week after a round of inflation numbers showed price pressures accelerating faster than analysts expected due to Middle East-led energy price pressures.
"Yes, it was predictable. The funny thing is that there is always a pivotal moment that delivers the 'uh huh' moment to investors," she says.
"And this Monday, bond stress remains in the headlines, as US crude traded above $108pb earlier in the session, with upside risks remaining dominant as the prolonged Middle East conflict leads to a record decline in global oil reserves."
8.27am: Rising mortgage rates highlighted
Housebuilders are down amidst headlines that mortgage costs are climbing sharply across Europe and North America as the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict feeds into bond markets and pushes up borrowing costs.
The Financial Times is leading with the story as the US average 30-year mortgage rate has risen to 6.36%, above levels seen before the Federal Reserve began cutting rates last year.
UK borrowers have seen some of the steepest increases, with the average two-year fixed mortgage rate at 5.1% in April, up from below 4% at the end of February.
German mortgage rates have also risen, with 10-year loans now costing around 3.6%, according to the FT story.
Lenders have raised rates due to rising government borrowing costs, with commercial bank and swap rates anticipating that official rates will at some point need to rise as the impact of the Iran war will lead to more widespread inflation.
8.15am: FTSE 100 opens lower as housebuilders, travel and miners weigh
The FTSE 100 has dropped 15 points to just over 10,180 in initial trade at the start of the week.
Housebuilders are among the biggest fallers in early trading, with Barratt Redrow and Persimmon both around 2.8%, with Berkeley not far away.
Airline engine maker Rolls-Royce and British Airways owner IAG are also among the leading fallers, along with the mining sector also a weight on the index, with Anglo American and Fresnillo down 1.9-1.6%.
7.57am: Slow and steady for Capita
Outsourcer Capita said trading in the first four months of 2026 was in line with expectations as it continues restructuring efforts, which include the sale of its private-sector call centre business that it expects to complete in the coming months.
The FTSE 250 group said that contracts won or extended in the first four months of the year exceeded £750 million, up 20% on the prior year period.
Adjusted group revenue rose 2.9% in the period to 30 April compared with a year earlier.
7.34am: Anglo finds new buyer for Aussie coal mines
Anglo American has found a new buyer for its Australian coking coal business, agreeing a sale for a price that could eventually rise to US$3.875 billion (£2.9 billion) in cash as the miner continues to simplify its portfolio ahead of its planned merger with Canada's Teck.
The FTSE 100 miner had previously struck a deal to sell these steelmaking coal assets to Peabody Energy in 2024, but the US company walked away after an explosion at one of the mines.
Today it said the sale to privately held UK company Dhilmar Ltd includes an upfront cash payment of US$2.3 billion on completion and a price-linked earnout worth up to US$1.575 billion over five years.
7.15am: FTSE 100 futures in red
The FTSE 100 is likely to start the week by ebbing further into the red, under pressure from the bond market, weak Chinese data hitting the mining sector and the continued lack of a peace deal in the Gulf.
On the futures market, a drop of 37 points is expected for London's blue-chip index, which ended last week by losing almost 178 points on the last day to finish at 10,195.37, but down just under 70 points over the week as a whole.
US futures are in the red too, as are Asian markets this morning, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng down 1.5% and the Shanghai Composite down 0.4%, while Japan's Nikkei has dropped 0.9%.
"Focus will continue to be on developments in the Middle East and the bond market rout that has caused a sell-off in risk assets," said analysts at Danske Bank.
Also they flagged Chinese data for April that was weak across the board, with lower industrial production growth, retail sales, investment growth and home prices.
"Developments in the US-Iran war continue to underscore the global economic stakes... The IEA warns that global oil inventories are falling at a record pace towards critical levels, while new drone attacks on critical infrastructure, including the UAE's Barakah nuclear plant, highlight growing regional security and supply risks."
Oil prices continue to climb, with brent crude reaching $111 a barrel overnight.
President Trump said he met top national security officials at the weekend to discuss "the path forward" on Iran, later warning Tehran on social media that it "better get moving, fast, or there won't be anything left of them".