TP ICAP PLC (LSE:TCAP) has run far enough for Cavendish, which downgraded the financial market infrastructure group to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy’ after a more than 30% share price gain since November.
Cavendish nudged its target price down to 323p from 325p (versus the current price of around 314.4p), leaving just 3% of implied upside.
That caution comes despite Cavendish upgrading its numbers after TP ICAP’s strong first-quarter trading update, helped by elevated volatility and supportive market volumes across Global Broking and Energy & Commodities.
“We update our model following the group’s strong 1Q26 trading update and, although we are mindful not to extrapolate the benefit of elevated volatility levels throughout the remainder of the year, we do reflect a strong first quarter coupled with a persistently positive backdrop into the second quarter,” analysts said.
Cavendish lifted its FY26 revenue forecast by around 4% to £2.49bn, with adjusted EBIT increased by a more modest 2.5% to £368.4mln, reflecting the drag from higher variable costs tied to stronger broking activity.
Global Broking is now expected to generate FY26 revenue of £1.47bn, up 5.4% on the broker’s previous forecast, while Energy & Commodities revenue is forecast at £478mln, up 3.4%.