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The Markets
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The Markets
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Finance

UK economy grew 0.6% in the first quarter, but Iran war clouds outlook

Britain's economy expanded by 0.6% in the first quarter of 2026, official data showed on Thursday, suggesting a stronger starting position than many had feared as the Iran conflict escalated.

GDP grew 0.3% in March alone, beating expectations for a 0.2% contraction, following revised growth of 0.4% in February and flat output in January.

Growth was broad-based, led by the services sector, with production also contributing and construction returning to growth after weakness at the end of last year.

The quarterly expansion marked a sharp acceleration from 0.2% growth in the final three months of 2025 and was the third consecutive year of conspicuously strong first-quarter readings, a pattern that has drawn scrutiny from the Bank of England and the statistics regulator.

The ONS said it found no statistically significant residual seasonality in its data, though it revised down growth in the first quarters of both 2024 and 2025 by 0.1 percentage points.

Economists cautioned that the figures were largely backward-looking, with business confidence weakening, input price inflation rising and job vacancies falling since the Middle East conflict began.

The Iran war has put global energy supply chains under severe strain following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% of the world's oil and gas was transited before the conflict.

The Bank of England held interest rates at 3.75% in April by a vote of eight to one, with one member voting for a hike, warning that the energy shock could weigh on growth by squeezing real incomes and raising uncertainty.

The International Monetary Fund has cut its UK growth forecast for 2026 to 0.8%, down from 1.3% in January.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves said the data showed the government had the right economic plan.

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