Polymarket is pricing in a 68% probability that Keir Starmer will no longer be prime minister by the end of December, leaving the Labour leader with a one-in-three chance of seeing out 2026 in Downing Street.
That seems to be at odds with prevailing political opinion, which sees the PM as a dead man walking.
The numbers have moved sharply since last week's local elections, in which Labour lost nearly 1,500 council seats to Reform UK and the Greens, triggering an open revolt from within his own party.
More than 80 Labour MPs have now publicly called for Starmer to resign or set out a timetable for his departure, not far short of the 81 signatures needed to trigger a formal leadership contest under party rules.
At a tense cabinet meeting on Tuesday, Starmer told ministers the challenge process had not been triggered and that the country expected him to get on with governing. Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden said afterwards that no one had challenged the prime minister during the meeting.
However, the Telegraph reported that six cabinet members, including Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood and Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, had privately urged Starmer to consider his position. Four junior ministers resigned on Tuesday alone.
Political analysts said Starmer's attempt to quell the rebellion had failed and that while he may cling on for a few more months, he is fighting for his political life.
The fact that prediction markets still assign a 32% chance of survival might seem generous given the scale of the revolt, but the arithmetic tells the story.
No sitting Labour prime minister has ever been removed by the party, the formal threshold of 81 MP signatures has not yet been crossed, and the leading contender to replace him, Manchester mayor Andy Burnham, is not currently an MP and would need a by-election to be arranged before he could stand.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting and former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner are the other leading contenders, though Rayner's candidacy is complicated by an unresolved tax investigation.
The lack of a clear successor may be the only thing keeping Starmer in office, a political dynamic the betting markets appear to be capturing more accurately than the headlines suggest.