Flutter Entertainment PLC (LSE:FLTR, NYSE:FLUT) could face pressure to meet market expectations in the second half of 2026, according to analysts at Citi, who warned consensus forecasts for the group’s US business may still be too optimistic despite recent downgrades.
First-quarter results and updated guidance earlier this month from the owner of FanDuel had already triggered sharp cuts to analyst forecasts for US adjusted EBITDA, with consensus estimates for 2026 and 2027 falling 11% and 10%, respectively.
However, Citi said further downside risk remained.
Flutter has guided for 77% of its full-year US adjusted EBITDA to be generated in the second half of 2026. Based on the midpoint of the guidance range, $970 million, this implies second-half EBITDA of about $747 million.
Citi said that figure remained materially above its own forecasts and would require a significant acceleration in profitability.
The broker expects Flutter’s US adjusted EBITDA will only come to around $759 million, below even the bottom end of the company’s guidance range of $770 million.
Analysts at the US bank also highlighted concerns over margin assumptions, with the implied second-half adjusted EBITDA margin of 21.6% needing to be more than double the previous highest second-half margin achieved by the US business, which was 10.3% in the second half of 2025.
The bank said consensus expectations still appeared to underestimate the challenge of delivering such a sharp improvement in profitability.