UBS had warned that Britain faced a prolonged period of political uncertainty from local council, mayoral and devolved elections, and the early results are delivering exactly that discomfort the Swiss bank anticipated.
Partial results show a historic drubbing for Keir Starmer's Labour Party and sweeping gains for hard-right Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage.
Starmer himself acknowledged the scale of the defeat, saying the results were "tough" and there was "no sugarcoating it."
Labour shed 254 councillors and eight councils in early counting, while Reform UK gained 367 councillors, taking its total to 369, and seized control of one council, having held none previously.
Reform wiped Labour out in working-class areas of northern England, including Hartlepool, once solid Labour turf, with Farage calling it a truly historic shift in British politics.
Despite the severity of the losses, UBS's core argument remains intact: an immediate leadership challenge is unlikely.
The process for unseating a Labour leader requires any challenger to secure the backing of 81 MPs, a high bar that potential candidates, including Angela Rayner and Andy Burnham have so far been unable to clear.
Launching a contest against the backdrop of the Iran conflict and rising inflation would also be a difficult sell to colleagues and the public alike.
For investors, however, the risks UBS identified are crystallising. A prolonged period of political uncertainty could leave economic policy in flux, while any shift in fiscal direction away from Chancellor Rachel Reeves' consolidation path risks unsettling gilt markets still scarred by memories of the 2022 mini-Budget.
UBS said elevated risk premia in gilt yields already present opportunities in quality sterling bonds with a four-to-seven-year duration, and that the pound should remain supported against low-yielding currencies once political noise fades and attention returns to Bank of England policy.
That moment, on this morning's evidence, may still be some way off.