Prediction markets are placing long odds on a swift resolution to the US-Iran conflict, with traders on Polymarket, the cryptocurrency-based forecasting platform, assigning just a 34% probability of a permanent peace deal by 31 May 2026, rising to 54% by 30 June.
The market, which has attracted nearly $88 million in trading volume, implies the conflict is likely to be a protracted affair despite a flurry of diplomatic activity in recent days.
Iran said this week it was reviewing a US peace proposal, with Washington and Tehran reportedly trying to hammer out a one-page memorandum to end hostilities, and Trump told reporters he believed Iran wanted an agreement following what he described as very good talks in the previous 24 hours.
But the gap between the two sides remains wide. Washington wants Tehran to surrender its stockpile of more than 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium, which the US says could be used to make a nuclear weapon, while Iran has proposed setting aside nuclear talks entirely until after the war ends and both sides agree to lift opposing blockades of Gulf shipping.
The Strait of Hormuz remains closed to commercial traffic from non-allied nations, choking off roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies and pushing up petrol prices globally.
Talks are being mediated by Pakistan and cover freedom of navigation through the strait, Iran's nuclear and ballistic programme, reconstruction and sanctions relief.
Polymarket's year-end contract prices a 73% probability of an eventual deal by 31 December, suggesting the market's central case is a resolution in the second half of 2026 at the earliest.
For markets, airlines and energy traders, the data offers a blunt summary of where informed money currently sits: a deal is more likely than not this year, but a swift end to hostilities before summer remains a long shot.