- FTSE 100 falls 161 points to 10,276
- Markets await response from Iran to US peace proposal
- Shell, BAE Systems, JD Sport, Hiscox, Centrica, Helios, M&G report results
5.15pm: Stocks pull back
London stocks came under pressure on Thursday, with the FTSE 100 down 161 points at 10,276.
“While the tech-driven surge has continued, we are once again seeing a divergence between the US and everyone else. Earnings from AMD and TSMC have reinforced the narrative on AI demand, but for Europe that offers less comfort given the smaller weighting of tech across the continent,” IG chief market analyst Chris Beauchamp said.
“Faced with ongoing supply disruptions, the US outlook continues to look rosier than that in Europe.”
4.08pm: All but one of top largest 20 blue-chips in red
The FTSE is having, despite seemingly encouraging tone from market analysts, a pretty bad day.
A move of 1.3% has become more common as volatility picked up in the past couple of months, while not quite matching the sharpest sell-offs, still ranks among the heavier sessions.
The reason is that almost all of the biggest companies on the index are in the red today.
Only one of the top 20 largest is in green, with only three of the top 30 and six of the top 40.
RELX (ex-dividend), BAE Systems (results and prospects for peace), Centrica (results and gas prices), Admiral (ex-div), BP (oil and gas prices) and Shell (results and energy prices) are all down around 6-3%.
3.50pm: Record gilt buying
Following up on the retail gilt-buying stats earlier, Hargreaves Lansdown has also confirmed that March this year was the busiest month on record for HL clients trading gilts, with the highest number of individual buys and sells ever in a single month on its platform.
Hal Cook, senior investment analyst, says the US/Israel/Iran war "was a clear driver of additional interest in gilts, which happened to coincide with the lead up to tax year end, one of the busiest periods of the year for our clients’ investment portfolios".
Higher yields available for gilts, which have been linked to inflation concerns sparked by the war, and potential for capital gains have added to client interest, as directly owned gilts are free of capital gains tax.
So far in the year-to-date, the average number of monthly gilt-buying trades per month so far in 2026 has been 26% higher than the average across 2025, while the amount of assets traded has been 46% higher, HL says.
"We’ve also seen an increase in the amount of selling activity too, with an increase of 29% in trades and 40% in assets sold," Cook says.
"While these figures have been impacted due to activity in March, trading activity across other months so far this year has also been elevated."
3.13pm: European stocks soften
The FTSE 100 has slid from a 0.5% deficit to a fall of 1.2% in the past hour.
There have been similar moves for the FTSE 250 and across the Channel for the DAX, CAC and other Continental benchmarks.
Oil prices only seem to have continued falling in the same time, so the reason does not appear to be Gulf-related, though government bonds yields have climbed a little.
Hmm.
2.51pm: US stocks flattish, but Datadog leaps
It's a circumspect start in New York, with the S&P 500 opening just below flat as big rises and falls cancel each other out, while the Dow is down just under 0.1% Nasdaq is up 0.1%.
On the S&P, top fallers are Zoetis, down 19% as the animal health company misses Q1 targets.
Coterra Energy and Tapestry are next, both down 8%.
Top risers is Carvana, up 413%, but that is a mirage as it is as it executes a 5-for-1 forward stock split.
Datadog has sprinted 32% higher after surprising with both its quarterly results and forecasts. The company said AI has been driving rather than cannibalising demand for its platform, as customers need monitoring and security for their cloud and AI deployments.
Cybersecurity outfit Fortinet jumped 23% as it reported strong beats in revenue and earnings and lifted its full-year outlook.
2.23pm: Oil edging lower, markets in waiting mode
Oil prices have dropped even lower, with Brent slipping below $96 a barrel in the past half hour.
This is the third day of prices falling, says market analyst Fawad Razakzada at Forex.com.
"The latest developments surrounding Iran have kept investors focused firmly on the risk-on trade."
He points out that President Trump has "continued to strike a relatively optimistic tone, suggesting a deal could potentially be reached within a week ahead of the upcoming summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping on May 14-15.
"That combination of easing geopolitical fears and hopes for diplomatic progress triggered a sharp sell-off in the US dollar yesterday and helped drive equities higher again across the world."
Markets are in somewhat of a "holding pattern", he adds, as traders assess whether negotiations would actually produce a meaningful breakthrough.
1.52pm: Lab-grown meat for your dog?
UK startup Meatly, a portfolio company of Agronomics Ltd (AIM:ANIC, OTC:AGNMF) has raised £10 million to build Europe’s largest cultivated meat facility in London, with pet food product launches planned for 2027.
The food tech firm says it plans to build a 20,000-litre pilot plant for cultivated meat, with site fit-out beginning immediately.
In 2024, Meatly became the world’s first company to be approved to sell cultivated meat for pets. Its first dog treats were produced in collaboration with fellow UK startup The Pack last year.
The investment roun saw participation from Agronomics and other existing backers, as well as first-time investors Oyster Bay Venture Capital, Clean Growth Fund, and JamJar Investments.
Oyster Bay's Elise Schumacher says Meatly is "laying the foundations for an entirely new protein category".
1.25pm: Shell and other oil giants' profits "obscene"
Shell and the other European oil majors generated a combined $22 billion in the first quarter of 2026, the highest quarterly profits since 2022, with the combined Q1 2026 profits of these six oil majors is 43% higher than the same period in 2025.
With many deaths in Iran and Lebabon, with working people around the world fearing rising bills, "it’s galling to see oil giants like Shell raking in obscene amounts of money," says Patrick Galey, head of investigations at Global Witness.
Nature broadcaster Chris Packham also accused Shell of profiting from war, saying on X that the company is “profiting from illegal wars and burning up our one and only home...What a lovely company.”
Galey notes that when Russia invaded Ukraine, energy bills soared as fossil fuel firms "raked it in" and "now we’re seeing the same pattern repeat itself... These are clearly the spoils of war."
Global Witness again calls for "robust taxes on big polluters to insulate households from price shocks and to fund a cheaper, cleaner, more stable energy future for all".
The big six in Europe also includes BP, Repsol, TotalEnergies, Eni and Equinor.
Global Witness also notes that three biggest European majors - Shell, BP and TotalEnergies - have earned $252 billion since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
12.34pm: US futures very light green
US futures are just above flat ahead of the open.
The outlook for stocks remains divided by region, notes Kathleen Brooks at XTB.
"There is a clear split between the performance of US corporates this earnings season and elsewhere, especially Europe."
Large misses have been seen for the likes of HSBC, while Shell results this morning included a reduction in its share buyback programme along with a sharp decline in the energy sector due to the fall in the oil price this week.
While markets "hoping for the best", European stocks are trading with a more cautious tone on Thursday, "even if there is a bullish backdrop".
The oil price decline has resumed, with Brent crude front-month futures now below $98 per barrel,
Looking at currencies, Brooks notes the dollar remaining weak, after a sharp sell off on Wednesday, with the Japanese yen the strongest currency in the G10 this week, up more than 2%.
This reflects a mixture of official intervention by Japan, where headlines suggest Japanese officials used $30 billion of FX reserves to boost the yen this week.
"This suggests two things: 1, they may not be able to do this indefinitely, and 2, Japanese officials mean business when it comes to propping up the yen. FX volatility could be here to stay," says Brooks.
11.26am: Sell in May - UK v US
The “sell in May and go away” stock market mantra apparently hasn’t worked for investors under Donald Trump.
According to analysis by IG, the S&P 500 delivered far stronger returns during the traditional May-October window under President Trump than in other years.
From May to October, the index gained an average 9.5% during Trump years, versus just 1.3% in non-Trump years over the past two decades - a sevenfold jump.
Compare that with London's FTSE 100, where a significant sell-in-May trend is further exacerbated during Trump years.
IG analyst Angeline Ong says the S&P is "crushing it" compared to FTSE flopping in the summer heat "comes down to where the money lives", as the US index is stacked with US tech titans that thrive on domestic growth and deregulation, while the UK benchmark is actually a global index, with over 80% of constituents' revenues pulled in from outside Britain, which she says can be its biggest weakness at times.
10.31am: UK construction at five-month low
UK construction activity weakened even further last month, according to the latest S&P Global/CIPS PMI survey.
The construction PMI fell to 39.7 in April, from 45.6 in March and below the consensus forecast of 46.0.
This is a five-month low, caused by surging energy costs and the prospect of rate hikes.
Such a level is consistent with output falling by 2.5% three-months-on-three-months, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics, down from the signal in March of a 1.0% drop.
10.19am: 'Direction of travel' enough for markets right now
With Iran expected to give its response to a US proposal to end the war later today, per a report from CNN, or at least by the weekend, markets are holding their breath.
"Will it hold?" wonders market analyst Neil Wilson at Saxo. "Fundamentally it’s about the direction of travel as far as markets are concerned.
"The assumption in the market is that there will be some kind of agreement to work towards a deal by the time Trump meets China’s president Xi next week.
"Stock markets are inherently optimistic and forward-looking. Brent is holding below $100 and any breakthrough could a fresh push towards $90, where it traded during the peak ‘hopium’ of April.
"Bond yields are lower reflecting markets dialling back a bit on the expected inflationary impact. It’s unclear whether we are close to a durable settlement, but it looks like we are at each step going further in the right direction, which is enough for markets for now."
10am: Where are we with the US and Iran?
A summary of the Iran situation, for those that might have missed the latest updates.
Yesterday's stock market gains were fuelled by President Trump pausing the Strait of Hormuz tanker escort mission 'Project Freedom' in order to allow Iran to approve a peace deal, which was followed by an Axios story that US officials felt a deal with Iran was "close" after sending a one-page proposal to Tehran.
Last night, Trump told reporters at the White House: “We’ve had very good talks over the last 24 hours, and it’s very possible that we’ll make a deal."
However, he warned that military action would resume if negotiations fail.
Reuters, citing two sources, reported that the two sides were close to agreeing on a one-page memorandum to formally end the conflict.
Iranian Tasnim news agency said the US proposal contained some unacceptable provisions, though did not specify which ones.
9.37am: Retail investors buying gilts
There has been a big increase in gilt orders by retail investors this year, with ordinary punters rushing to buy UK government bonds on various platforms.
Freetrade has revealed a 193% increase in the buying value for gilts from January to April on its platform. (Freetrade, owned by IG Group since last April) has 1.6 million users.)
With the UK local elections starting today, spokesperson Alex Campbell says the gilt markets "probably aren't a doorstep issue" for local party campaigners, but have been a big focus for financial markets in the last week.
"Retail investors have been buying that weakness," he says.
"As rumblings grow again about potential challenges to Keir Starmer's premiership from the left of the Labour party, the on-again-off-again blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is also adding to fears about inflation.
"Investors need to decide whether they think this sell-off indicates a passing panic about the direction of Labour's fiscal policies or more deep seated concerns about the direction of inflation."
9.14am: Shell trims buyback as debt swells
Shell shares are down 2.1% (not much worse than BP's following its Q1 results.
First quarter underlying earnings came in nearly $1bn ahead of forecasts, notes analyst Derren Nathan at Hargreaves Lansdown, against a backdrop of massive disruption in energy markets that has provided grist to the mill for its trading and optimisation activities.
Improved refining margins, cost discipline and higher oil and gas prices all played their part too, says Nathan.
"Free cash flow moved in the other direction, falling $1.3 billion from the previous quarter to $2.9 billion as the higher price environment locked up more cash in stock and sums receivable from customers."
The immediate outlook for integrated gas has been impacted by damage to Shell’s facilities in Qatar, he also flags, while the proposed acquisition of Canadian shall producer ARC goes some way towards diversifying supply.
"But with net debt up 27% over the last year to $52.6bn, management has slowed the pace of share buybacks slightly," the analyst adds.
"Overall, Shell is benefitting from the higher energy price environment, and even if the Strait of Hormuz does reopen, we don’t think prices are unlikely to go back to pre-war levels.
"However, balance sheet strength and resilient shareholder distributions have been a key attraction for investors, so it's understandable markets have reacted a little cautiously today."
8.47am: Helios heads skyward
After almost an hour, the FTSE 100 is down 46 points or 0.4%, but the FTSE 250 is up 107 points or 0.5%.
Helping coax the mid-cap index higher are gains for Helios Towers (LSE:HTWS), up 16.2% so far.
The Africa and the Middle East mobile towers group has added 1,406 new tenancies, versus consensus forecasts of nearer 550, and raised full-year tenancy guidance by 1,000 to a new target of 3,000-3,500 additions.
This drops through to a $5 million EBITDA upgrade, and at least $15 million in 2027.
Helios has begun 2026 "at a blistering pace", says analyst Graham Hunt at Jefferies, "accelerating growth while delivering a higher [return on invested capital]".
"The mood music had been positive into Q1, with customers upgrading guidance and pre-releasing results. Despite this, we were still surprised by the scale of this beat, and this early into 2026."
Hiscox (LSE:HSX) is top of the blue-chip index, up 5%, after gross premiums rose 10.2% to $1.7 billion in the first quarter, ahead of expectations, with growth across all divisions despite softer pricing.
Andreas van Embden at house broker Peel Hunt said it was a “good start to the year”, with disciplined underwriting and a benign claims environment supporting performance in a tougher market.
8.28am: China giant swoops for AIM lithium developer
A notable deal among the small caps this morning: Atlantic Lithium has agreed to be taken over by Chinese new energy materials giant Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt, in an all-cash deal valuing the company at approximately $210 million.
Huayou's offer is to acquire all issued shares at a 26.6% premium to the last closing price, 21.8% above its 30-day volume-weighted average price. The shares had more than doubled so far this year, but only back to where they were in mid-2024, still well off highs above 40p in 2022.
The deal centres on Atlantic's flagship Ewoyaa project in Ghana, one of Africa's more advanced hard rock lithium discoveries and is seen as a potential supplier to the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors.
8.15am: FTSE opens lower, Centrica and Shell fall
The FTSE 100 has opened down 27 points at just below 10,412.
Principal culprits are Centrica, down 3.3%, along with Shell and BP, down 2.5% and 2.3%.
RELX and Admiral Group were among the biggest fallers, as their shares traded ex-dividend, alongside Glencore. RELX dropped after going ex a 48p payout, while Admiral fell on a 90p dividend.
7.51am: Shell, BAE and JD
Shell has announced a new $3 billion share buyback as it reports higher first quarter profits, supported by stronger trading and improved refining margins, while maintaining a steady outlook.
Adjusted earnings rose to $6.9 billion from $3.3 billion in the previous quarter and $5.6 billion a year earlier, while free cash flow was $2.9 billion, lower than $4.2 billion in the fourth quarter.
Elsewhere, BAE Systems said trading in early 2026 was "strong" and reiterated its full-year outlook.
JD Sports reported stronger sales and lower profits, roughly in line with expectations, and hiked its dividend 20% and launched a £200 million buyback as cash flow was strong despite tough trading conditions.
Chief executive Régis Schultz said the group delivered “a resilient performance” despite difficult markets.
7.26am: Local elections, and will it force Starmer out and affect bonds?
A short explainer on UK local elections from the economics team at Berenberg, as part of a "US investors' questions about Europe" update this morning.
To the question, "Will UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer stay in office? And what happens if he does not?" this was the answer:
"The ruling Labour party will endure major losses in local government elections this Thursday, 7 May. According to opinion polls, the party’s vote share has crumbled from 40% to 19% of the vote since the seats up for election were last contested in 2021 and 2022.
"Sometime after the defeat, Labour Members of Parliament (MPs) will probably attempt to replace the Prime Minister in the hope that a new leader can improve the government’s performance before the next general election in 2029.
"Under party rules, 81 MPs must nominate a challenger to the Prime Minister to trigger a leadership ballot of grassroots members.
"The left-leaning grassroots party members would likely elect a candidate to the left of Starmer on economic policy.
"This creates a risk of higher business costs and corporate taxation. However, any new Prime Minister will have limited room for manoeuvre.
"The bond market will force the government to stick by and large to its fiscal consolidation plan.
"The large number of Labour MPs who won their seats from the centre-right Conservative party in 2024 cannot afford a shift to the left in policy that alienates their voters."
7.15am: FTSE 100 facing slower start, local elections in focus
A slower start for the FTSE 100 has been called on Thursday, as domestic attention turns to politics with an important round of local elections that some predict could heap pressure on Keir Starmer to resign.
The UK's blue-chip index is expected to open around 10 points higher, a day after it climbed almost 220 points to 10,438.66.
There were similar gains to the FTSE's 2.15% rise in Europe, while overnight in the US, tech stocks were the key driver as the Nasdaq rose 2% and the S&P 500 1.5% as both closed at new record highs, with the Dow Jones adding 1.2%.
Oil prices have moved little overnight, with Brent crude at just under $102 a barrel.
Asia's main stock benchmarks are all up 2-3%, playing catch-up after yesterday's report that the US and Iran were close to agreeing a one-page memo that would end the war and set a framework for more detailed nuclear negotiations.
Iran’s ISNA news agency said that Tehran is looking at the US proposal, with Bloomberg reporting that a response is expected to be sent via Pakistan in the next two days.
UK corporate results today include Shell, BAE Systems, JD, Centrica and M&G.