Mattel, Inc (NASDAQ:MAT) is expected to see improved growth in 2026, according to Jefferies, which raised its forecasts and price target for the toymaker, citing potential upside from its entertainment-driven product slate.
Jefferies has increased its fiscal 2026 sales growth estimate to 6.6% year over year, up from a prior 4.5% and above the roughly 6% consensus.
The firm also lifted its earnings per share forecast to $1.35 and set a price target of $19.
Shares of Mattel traded up 2.5% at about $15 on Wednesday afternoon.
The analysts pointed to two key variables for 2026: upcoming releases tied to the “Masters of the Universe” franchise and Disney’s “Toy Story 5,” for which Mattel holds the toy license. According to Jefferies, neither film would need a breakout box office performance to drive incremental revenue and profit upside.
For “Masters of the Universe,” scenario analysis suggests a wide range of outcomes, with estimated sales contributions between $9.8 million and $243 million and EBIT ranging from $3.7 million to $47.3 million. The projections assume a 4% royalty rate tied to box office performance, along with additional merchandise-related uplift.
“Toy Story 5” is also seen as a meaningful contributor. Based on historical trends from the 2019 release, Jefferies’ base case assumes toy sales of about $182 million, with a potential increase to more than $327 million in a stronger scenario. Estimated EBIT contribution ranges from roughly $10.2 million to $45.8 million.
Jefferies said both franchises would primarily benefit Mattel’s Challenger and “Other” categories, which the company has indicated should post strong growth. Under its base case, the firm expects these segments to grow about 14%, compared with consensus expectations of 6%.
In a more optimistic scenario, the two entertainment properties could contribute roughly six percentage points of additional sales growth, though the analysts cautioned that gains in these categories could be partially offset by weaker trends in other segments, including dolls.