Standard Chartered PLC (LSE:STAN) shares are in focus ahead of a closely watched investor day on 19 May, with JP Morgan raising its price target on the emerging markets-focused bank and flagging expectations of ambitious new profitability targets to 2028.
Analyst Kian Abouhossein, who carries an overweight rating on the stock, lifted his price target to 2,220p from 2,200p after increasing earnings per share estimates by 2-3%, driven by stronger revenues and lower costs in his model.
The broker expects Standard Chartered's investor day to centre on a return on tangible equity (ROTE) target above 15% for 2028, a key profitability measure for banks that compares net income to shareholders' equity.
JPM's own forecast sits at 15.5% for 2028, slightly ahead of the 15.1% consensus among City analysts.
Abouhossein said he expects the bank to underpin the target through a continued strategic focus on higher-margin businesses, including affluent retail clients and financial institutions within its corporate and investment banking division, with the aim of building a more resilient returns profile.
Operating leverage is expected to remain a central theme, with JP Morgan forecasting revenue growth of 5.5% per year between 2025 and 2028, comfortably ahead of cost growth of just 1% annually.
That gap would drive the cost-to-income ratio, a standard measure of bank efficiency, down to around 56% by 2028 from 63% in the 2025 financial year.
In a bull case scenario, revenue growth of 6% per year would push ROTE above 16% by 2028.
On capital returns, JPM forecasts a dividend payout ratio of 35%, ahead of the roughly 30% implied by consensus, with total distributions including buybacks of $13 billion between 2026 and 2028.
Abouhossein described the risk/reward as attractive, noting the bank trades at 8.7 times forward earnings and 1.2 times tangible book value for 2027, having been materially reshaped over the past decade with a focus on sustainable returns expansion.