Prediction market Polymarket is pricing just a 44% chance that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by the end of June, as diplomats scramble to resolve a crisis that has effectively closed one of the world's most critical energy arteries since early March.
Speculators have staked nearly $2.5 million in trading volume, with the probability sliding sharply from above 80% in mid-April, reflecting deepening pessimism among traders that a negotiated settlement can be reached in time.
The backdrop is the most serious disruption to global energy supplies in decades.
US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran beginning 28 February, which killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, prompted Iranian forces to declare the strait closed on 4 March, threatening to attack any vessel attempting to pass.
The waterway carries roughly 20% of the world's seaborne oil and 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies, and before the conflict around 3,000 vessels transited it each month.
That figure has since fallen to around 5% of pre-war levels.
Iran achieved the closure not through a conventional naval blockade but through selective drone strikes that were sufficient to cause insurers to withdraw cover, making transit economically impossible for most shipowners regardless of military risk.
A conditional ceasefire and brief partial reopening in April broke down after Iran said the US had failed to honour its terms, and the US subsequently imposed a counter-blockade on ships seeking to reach Iranian ports.
Diplomatic efforts are ongoing.
Pakistan has been mediating talks between Washington and Tehran, while the UK and France have hosted conferences focused on sanctions, diplomatic initiatives and insurance provision for ships.
Trump paused a US-led effort to escort stranded vessels out of the strait on Tuesday, saying progress was being made toward a final agreement, though the White House provided no details on the substance of those talks.
Iran's newly installed supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has indicated the closure of the strait should remain a priority, and Tehran has threatened further military action if the US blockade is not lifted.
The Polymarket contract resolves as "yes" if IMF Portwatch data shows a seven-day moving average of transit calls at or above 60 by any date before 30 June, a threshold that remains a considerable distance from current traffic levels.