The data analytics company has raised its full-year revenue guidance by nearly $500 million, with US commercial growth running at its fastest rate on record.
Palantir Technologies Inc (NYSE:PLTR) had spent the opening months of 2026 in the doghouse. The stock had fallen 18% year to date, a bruising run for a company that had become one of the defining names of the AI investment cycle. Then came first-quarter results that, by any measure, made the doubters look foolish.
Revenue for the three months to March came in at $1.63 billion, up 85% year on year and ahead of the Wall Street consensus of $1.54 billion. That is not a marginal beat. It is the kind of number that forces a reassessment. Wedbush Securities, which covers the stock with an Outperform rating and a $230 price target, did not waste time making its view clear. Analyst Dan Ives called it another validation moment.
US commercial is the engine
The standout number within the quarter was US commercial revenue, which grew 133% year on year. That is the segment where Palantir has been pushing hardest to prove that its AI Platform, known as AIP, can become the default infrastructure for enterprise AI adoption. The results suggest that argument is landing.
Total contract value in the US commercial segment reached $1.18 billion, up 45% year on year. The remaining deal value across that book stood at $4.92 billion, up 112% year on year. These are pipeline metrics as much as revenue figures, and they point to a business that is pulling in new commitments at a pace that well outstrips what it has already recognised as income. The company also reported 206 deals worth more than $1 million in total contract value during the quarter, up from 180 in the prior period.
The pattern here is what Palantir describes as land and expand: win an enterprise customer, embed the platform, then grow the contract. The data suggests that playbook is working.
Federal business holds firm
One question that has shadowed Palantir is whether its government revenue, historically the bedrock of the business, would hold up as US federal spending came under pressure. First quarter US government revenue of $687 million, up 84% year on year, offered a reassuring answer. Wedbush noted that Palantir continues to take share within the Department of Defense, a market where its Gotham platform has long-standing, deeply embedded relationships.
The concern heading into the quarter was that any softening in federal procurement could expose a gap in the business model. Instead, both sides of the ledger grew at broadly the same rate, which removes one of the more persistent objections to the stock.
Guidance raised across the board
Palantir lifted its full-year revenue forecast to a range of $7.65 billion to $7.66 billion. That compares with prior guidance of $7.18 billion to $7.20 billion and a Street estimate of $7.24 billion. In a single quarter, the company added approximately $470 million to its annual revenue outlook.
Full-year adjusted operating income guidance was raised to between $4.44 billion and $4.45 billion, from $4.13 billion to $4.14 billion previously. The implied margin of around 60% is running well ahead of what analysts had pencilled in. Free cash flow guidance was lifted to a range of $4.2 billion to $4.4 billion.
Chief executive Alex Karp added a further signal for investors tracking the longer arc of the business: he expects US commercial revenue to grow at 100% year on year in 2027. That is a remarkable statement of confidence in a market that many enterprise software companies are still trying to articulate a credible strategy for.
A stock trying to price a moving target
The underlying tension in Palantir's story has always been valuation. At around $144 a share, the stock trades at approximately 100 times forward earnings on Wedbush's 2026 estimates. That is a multiple that leaves no room for execution risk. The 18% decline year to date reflected that fragility as much as anything fundamental. But first-quarter results offered something concrete against which the premium can be measured. Revenue at its highest ever growth rate, margins expanding, guidance lifted, and a federal business that did not buckle. The bears have been given less to work with.