Bank lifts 2026 core earnings per share estimate 2% to $10.30 after first-quarter beat, sees positive risk-reward into late-year readouts
Citi has raised its 2026 core earnings per share forecast for AstraZeneca PLC (LSE:AZN, NASDAQ:AZN) by 2% to $10.30 following a first-quarter beat and maintained its buy rating, arguing that risk-reward is positive heading into a series of second-half pipeline catalysts that the market has yet to fully price in.
The bank said first-quarter results demonstrated the breadth of AstraZeneca's growth and pipeline, with the pharmaceuticals group delivering approximately 2% ahead of consensus before leaving full-year guidance unchanged. Citi's revised $10.30 forecast represents 12% growth on a constant currency basis, in line with consensus and at the top end of AstraZeneca's own guidance range. Forecasts for 2027 to 2034 were also nudged up by 1%.
Citi said investor focus is likely to shift to second-half catalysts where it sees the most compelling risk-reward, citing three programmes in particular: Wainua in the CARDIO-TTRansform cardiovascular outcomes trial, camizestrant in the SERENA-4 breast cancer study, and Datroway in the AVANZAR trial.
The bank also flagged detailed data for tozorakimab, an interleukin-33 inhibitor being studied in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and efzimfotase alfa in hypophosphatasia, a rare bone disorder, following headline results released in the first quarter.
Citi acknowledged some risk around the SERENA-6 advisory committee meeting for Truqap, AstraZeneca's breast cancer treatment, but said any downside was limited to approximately 1% of the company's net present value.
AstraZeneca has 11 further Phase III readouts still anticipated in 2026, and the absence of prior mid-30s margin guidance from the company's results presentation appeared not to unsettle investors, with Citi noting this was likely implied within unchanged double-digit earnings growth guidance.