Bank sits 5-10% below consensus on core earnings from 2027, citing need for pipeline success and new launch execution
JP Morgan has retained its underweight rating on GSK PLC (LSE:GSK, NYSE:GSK) with a June 2027 price target of £17, arguing that near-term earnings upgrade potential is limited and that the pharmaceutical group's longer-term outlook remains contingent on pipeline success and the execution of new product launches.
Analyst Zain Ebrahim made modest forecast changes following GSK's first-quarter 2026 results, including foreign exchange-related adjustments of 0% to 1% to sales forecasts across 2026 to 2031 and upgrades of 1% to 2% to core operating profit estimates.
It has left local currency guidance unchanged at 4% sales growth and 8% core operating profit growth for the full year.
JP Morgan's 2031 sales forecast of £32 billion sits approximately 8% below market consensus, with the broker running 7% behind peers on Specialty Medicines, 8% behind on General Medicines and 11% behind on Vaccines.
This reflects scepticism around the contribution from new launches, including Exdensur and Blenrep.
The broker identified several near-term catalysts to monitor, including detailed Phase III data on bepirovirsen, a treatment for chronic hepatitis B, at the EASL liver disease conference on 27-30 May.
Expected are readouts from the camlipixant CALM-1 and CALM-2 trials in July, as well as GSK's second-quarter results and pipeline update on 29 July.