Prediction markets are pricing Elon Musk's odds of winning his lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI at just 35%, down sharply from earlier in the year, as the two men came face to face in a California courtroom yesterday for one of the most consequential legal battles in technology history.
Musk is seeking $130 billion in damages and wants OpenAI to return to a nonprofit structure with both Altman and president Greg Brockman removed from its board.
His central claim is that Altman steered OpenAI away from its founding mission as a nonprofit designed to develop advanced AI for the benefit of humanity, free of profit motives.
Musk took the witness stand on Tuesday at the federal court in Oakland, California, becoming the first witness called in the case.
His attorney told the jury that the defendants had "stolen a charity", arguing that Musk poured around $38 million into OpenAI over five years before a bitter split in 2018.
OpenAI created a for-profit subsidiary a year after Musk's exit and, in 2025, converted into a fully for-profit public benefit corporation.
OpenAI's defence was blunt: "We are here because Mr Musk didn't get his way. He quit, saying they would fail for sure. But my clients had the nerve to go on and succeed without him."
Microsoft, named as a co-defendant, is accused of enabling OpenAI's alleged breach of charitable trust through its investments and partnerships with the company's for-profit arm.
The Polymarket chart shows odds peaked briefly above 50% before collapsing toward 30% in March, with a modest recovery since. The market resolves on 31 December 2026.
The stakes extend well beyond the courtroom. OpenAI's IPO is expected to be a blockbuster, and a Musk victory could set back a major rival while propelling his own AI company, xAI, ahead in the race.