With eBay Inc (NASDAQ:EBAY, XETRA:EBA) set to report its first-quarter 2026 results on April 29, UBS has bumped its price target on the stock to $110 from $96, though the bank is keeping its Neutral rating in place as it weighs a stronger-than-expected start to the year against a cloudier outlook for the months ahead.
UBS is forecasting first-quarter GMV growth of 9.8% year-over-year on a foreign exchange-neutral basis, with US GMV up a robust 19.3% and international GMV up 1%. That lands within eBay's own guidance range of 10% to 12% FXN growth.
Revenue is pegged at $3 billion, at the low end of management's guidance range. Management is guiding for non-GAAP operating margins of 28.3% to 29.2% and adjusted EPS of $1.53 to $1.59, both ahead of what the Street is expecting, with consensus sitting at GMV growth of 7.1% and revenue growth of 8.5%.
A big part of the first-quarter story is eBay's focus categories, which grew 16% in Q4 2025 and outpaced the rest of the marketplace by 12 percentage points. That momentum looks to have carried into early 2026. UBS also pointed to a lift from coins and bullion, a category that got a boost from elevated gold prices through much of the quarter before prices started pulling back toward the end of March.
The trickier question is what comes next. UBS flagged the Middle East conflict as a drag on consumer spending, along with rising shipping costs. Operating expense and income forecasts have also been nudged lower for the rest of the year, though UBS says it's still comfortable staying within management's 8% to 10% growth guidance.
Zooming out, UBS says it is now more confident in eBay's ability to sustain mid-single-digit FXN growth into 2027 and beyond as those focus category benefits keep stacking up. Add in eBay's active share buyback program, which is helping drive low-teens EPS growth, and UBS felt comfortable bumping its P/E multiple to 15 times from 14 times. For context, eBay averaged around 14 times in 2025 and has a three-year historical average of roughly 12 times.
As for what eBay is building toward, UBS sees 2026 as very much an investment year. eBay Live has launched in Canada, France, and Italy, and the company is pushing deeper into shipping solutions and vehicles, categories that carry lower margins but are part of a longer-term growth play.
The pending Depop acquisition, expected to close in Q2, should also bolster eBay's standing in the recommerce space.