Shopify Inc (TSX:SH., NYSE:SHOP) heads into its first-quarter report on solid footing, but analysts will be watching closely for a convincing earnings beat, measured optimism on second-quarter guidance, and meaningful progress on the company's agentic commerce ambitions.
Jefferies is forecasting GMV of $101 billion for the quarter, representing 36% year-over-year growth and above the Street consensus of $99 billion.
Total revenue is pegged at $3.1 billion, implying growth of approximately 31.5% and consistent with the company's own guidance for low-thirties percentage growth. Within that, merchant solutions revenue is expected to reach $2.38 billion, up 37% year-over-year, while subscription revenue is forecast at $722 million, up 16%.
The bank sees room for GMV to come in ahead of expectations, pointing to web traffic data on shop.app subdomains that has shown a 96% correlation to GMV since the first quarter of 2023. Even accounting for continued pressure on GMV per visit (which averaged declines of 32% year-over-year through 2025) Jefferies believes consensus expectations for 32% GMV growth may prove conservative.
Shopify's agentic commerce strategy is also expected to be a key focus of the call, with investors seeking clarity on the state of agentic checkout following OpenAI's pullback and early signs of traction from the company's Agentic Plan across its merchant base.