Trillion Energy International Inc. (CSE:TCF, OTCQB:TRLEF, FRA:Z620) is weighing in on the current state of global oil markets, arguing that an unprecedented supply disruption has materially improved the economics of its M47 oil exploration block in southeastern Türkiye.
The Vancouver-based company said the global oil market is facing the largest supply disruption on record, with restricted flows through the Strait of Hormuz removing an estimated 9.1 million barrels per day from global supply — a level the company says surpasses prior shocks, including the Gulf War.
Scott Lower, president of Trillion Energy, said the market consensus is underestimating the durability of the current supply crunch.
"This is the largest supply disruption in the history of the oil market, and inventories are heading toward all-time lows," Lower said.
"The consensus is still treating this as a temporary spike. We don't see it that way. A decade of underinvestment doesn't unwind in a quarter.”
Brent crude has traded above US$100 per barrel amid tightening physical markets and dwindling global inventories.
Trillion said the disruption is not a transient geopolitical premium but a structural imbalance driven by a decade of underinvestment in new oil production. “The world still needs 100 million barrels a day; that number isn't going backwards, and the easy barrels are getting harder to find,” Lower told shareholders.
The timing is significant for Trillion's flagship M47 project. An independent resource evaluation of Block M47 used a near-term Brent price assumption of US$63.68 per barrel for 2026 — well below current market levels. That evaluation placed the unrisked NPV-10 at US$733.5 million, net to Trillion's 29% working interest.
The company's M47 target is 32.4° API light oil, a premium-grade crude priced at or near the Brent benchmark, making the higher price environment directly accretive to project economics.
Trillion said its earn-in obligations are actively underway, with US$15 million committed across 2026 and 2027 to advance the M47 work program, including exploration drilling on a block the company describes as situated within a cluster of major discoveries that has seen regional oil production grow from zero to more than 80,000 barrels per day.
Lower also noted that Türkiye's dependence on imported crude makes domestic onshore production increasingly strategic.
"When Brent trades above $100, that dependency is felt directly in energy costs, supply security, and policy,” Lower said.
"Domestic onshore production of the kind we are developing at M47 becomes exactly what Türkiye needs," he added, calling the Cudi-Gabar province a proven petroleum system home to a cluster of major discoveries and an established regional production base.
“We are building a company around that reality, and our timing, we believe, is right."