Traders on Polymarket are now betting on a later resolution to the US-Iran conflict, with the end of June emerging as the most likely point for a peace deal, though with notably less conviction than before.
The contract for 30 June currently implies a 56% probability, up sharply in recent sessions, compared with 39% for the end of May and just 10% for 30 April. An early resolution by 24 April is now seen as highly unlikely, with odds at just 1%.
Two weeks ago, punters on the decentralised p
Trumorediction market platform were pricing a 78% chance that by the end of June Donald Trump would announce a formal end to US military operations against Iran.
That was just after Washington and Tehran agreed a two-week ceasefire.
Since that time, peace talks have faltered.
The shift suggests fading confidence in a near-term deal, rather than a simple pushback in timing.
Meanwhile, Polymarket bets on the Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by the end of May, are seen as having a 46% chance, compared to an almost zero chance by the end of April, 21% chance by mid-May, and 66% for the end of June.
That comes as there seemed to be little progress on talks between the US and Iran on Thursday.
President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran wants "dialogue and agreement" but the US's "breach of commitments, blockade and threats are the main obstacles to genuine negotiations”.
At the same time, Tehran's lead negotiator Mohammad Ghalibaf said it is “not possible to reopen the Strait of Hormuz considering all the blatant violations of the ceasefire”.
On Tuesday evening, President Trump said Washington had been asked by mediators in Pakistan to extend until Iran can come up with a "unified proposal" and "discussions are concluded, one way or the other". He said this extension was because "the government of Iran is seriously fractured”.
Trump added that the US would continue its blockade of Iran, while Iran said it would keep the Strait of Hormuz locked up, too.
On Wednesday, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard seized two vessels in the Strait, according to state-linked media, after accusing them of operating without authorisation and manipulating navigation systems. A third vessel was also reportedly fired upon nearby.
On Thursday, the US confirmed it had intercepted three Iranian oil tankers in Asian waters, redirecting the ships away from positions near India, Malaysia and Sri Lanka. Analysts said it is the first time the US naval blockade has reached beyond the Strait.