McDonald's Corp (NYSE:MCD, XETRA:MDO) is expected to report first-quarter earnings slightly below Wall Street expectations, as analysts at Jefferies trimmed their sales forecasts on signs of softer consumer demand in March.
In a note ahead of results, Jefferies said it lowered its first-quarter same-store sales (SSS) estimates for both the US and international operated markets by 50 basis points each, citing “evidence of a softer March and Q1 average” amid a volatile macroeconomic backdrop.
The firm now expects US SSS of 4% versus a prior 4.5%, and international SSS of 3.5% versus 4%.
Jefferies said it now models first-quarter earnings per share of $2.70, slightly below consensus at $2.76.
The brokerage pointed to mixed third-party industry data, noting that while some indicators such as Second Measure and Placer.ai suggested a sequential slowdown in restaurant demand through the quarter, other “Black Box” data showed improvement in quick-service restaurant trends.
The conflicting signals, it said, reflect uneven consumer spending patterns across the sector.
Despite near-term softness, Jefferies emphasized that McDonald’s remains positioned to gain market share, supported by its value offerings, marketing execution, and digital and delivery growth.
Analysts highlighted continued momentum from product initiatives such as the US “Big Arch” launch and a new beverage lineup rolling out in May.
For full-year 2026, Jefferies slightly lowered its earnings forecast to $13.08 per share versus $13.12 previously, while keeping its 2027 estimate broadly unchanged. It expects earnings growth to accelerate later in the year, helped by a lower tax rate in the second half.
The firm reiterated its “Buy” rating on McDonald’s and maintained a price target of $375, citing long-term drivers including global unit expansion, margin improvement, and strong free cash flow generation despite near-term macroeconomic uncertainty.
McDonald’s is due to report on May 7.