Starbucks Corp (NASDAQ:SBUX, XETRA:SRB) is set to report fiscal second quarter earnings on April 28, with analysts split between signs of improving US demand and lingering concerns about the durability of the recovery and the medium-term earnings trajectory.
Jefferies expects the quarter to be largely in line with forecasts, while highlighting incremental improvement in the US business.
The firm raised its estimate for US same-store sales to 4%, slightly above consensus, supported by improving traffic trends and sequential gains in consumer demand indicators.
At the same time, the analysts maintained a more cautious stance on international markets, particularly China, where it expected growth to trail consensus amid heightened competition and transitional effects linked to the joint venture structure.
Despite the stabilisation in US performance, Jefferies remained cautious on the second half outlook, arguing that sustaining mid-single-digit domestic growth would be challenging given macroeconomic pressure and competitive dynamics.
The firm also revised longer-term earnings estimates below consensus after incorporating structural changes tied to the China partnership, and maintained a ‘Hold’ rating and $92 price target, noting that valuation already reflected much of the near-term recovery.
UBS took a more positive view on underlying momentum into the quarter, having lifted its North America same-store sales forecast to 6%, well above consensus expectations. The upgrade was driven by stronger transaction trends, improving ticket growth, and continued evidence of demand recovery across core US operations.
The analysts attributed the improvement to ongoing menu innovation, operational enhancements, loyalty program changes, and more effective marketing initiatives. It also pointed to early benefits from structural initiatives, including cost savings efforts and the China joint venture, as supporting margin expansion.
The firm forecast operating margins above consensus levels for the quarter, while noting that a significant portion of the expected recovery appeared to be reflected in the valuation.
UBS has a $100 price target on Starbucks, implying modest upside from current levels of $98.