Morgan Stanley thinks Europe’s earnings backdrop is holding up far better than investors fear, arguing consensus profit growth is still moving higher despite the Middle East shock and screening Energy, Utilities, Banks and Telecoms as the strongest candidates for earnings beats.
The US bank's analysts, in a note, said they had shifted back to a constructive stance on European equities earlier this month, but now expect a tactical pause in the rebound as markets wait for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen. That caution is about sentiment rather than profits, however.
In one of the note’s more striking calls, Morgan Stanley said European consensus earnings growth is “moving up - not down - amid Middle East disruptions,” with 2026 MSCI Europe EPS growth running at 14.0%, or 12.2% excluding Energy. That helps explain why the firm is more constructive on Europe than much of the market.
Morgan Stanley said a $90 a barrel oil price would equate to roughly 10% European EPS growth, with about 70% of that uplift driven by the Energy sector.
Even so, it argued earnings outside Energy still look resilient, pushing back against the idea that Europe’s heavier energy dependence leaves it fundamentally more exposed than the US.