Bettors see a drawn-out diplomatic process, with the probability of a permanent agreement rising only gradually through the summer.
Prediction market traders are pricing in just a 24% chance of a permanent peace deal between the United States and Iran by 22 April, according to Polymarket data, a figure that underscores how far apart the two sides remain despite weeks of ceasefire and diplomacy.
The contract structure tells a story of grinding, protracted negotiation rather than imminent resolution: the probability rises to only 41% by the end of April, 56% by the end of May, and 70% by the end of June, suggesting that even the most optimistic bettors do not expect a clean or swift conclusion.
The April 22 contract is by far the most heavily traded, with nearly $7.2 million in volume, reflecting intense market focus on whether the fragile two-week ceasefire, which is due to expire around that date, can be converted into something more durable.
The backdrop is deeply unpromising. Face-to-face talks in Islamabad between a US delegation led by Vice President JD Vance and an Iranian team led by parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf lasted 21 hours across 11 and 12 April before collapsing without agreement, marking the highest-level direct engagement between the two countries since the Islamic Republic was founded in 1979.
The core sticking points remain Iran's nuclear enrichment programme, the status of the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran's demand for war reparations and security guarantees against future US and Israeli strikes.
The US asked Iran during the Islamabad talks for a 20-year suspension of uranium enrichment and relinquishment of its accumulated stockpile, demands Tehran flatly rejected.
Washington responded to the breakdown by imposing a naval blockade of Iranian ports, with the US Navy having turned back 14 vessels by Thursday.
Further talks are reported to be under consideration, with both Trump and Vance signalling openness to another round in Islamabad, but no date has been confirmed and each side has publicly placed the onus on the other to move first.
The ceasefire's expiry and the unresolved question of Hormuz shipping leave little room for optimism in the immediate term, and the prediction market data suggests informed money agrees.