A stronger-than-expected second half and a fully settled procurement matter push full-year earnings around 10% ahead of consensus.
Shares in Optima Health PLC (AIM:OPT, OTC:OHLTF, FRA:J3N) rose 5% to 189p on Friday after the occupational health company reported full-year adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) around 10% ahead of market expectations, prompting Panmure Liberum to flag a proforma valuation case of 250p per share.
Panmure Liberum, which rates the stock a buy with a 225p target price, estimates the beat puts full-year EBITDA at approximately £19.9 million against a consensus of £18.1 million, with the uplift partly driven by a £2.4 million settlement of a previously disclosed procurement matter recognised in the second half, following £2.3 million booked in the first half.
Stripping out the settlement, the broker's analysis suggests underlying second-half EBITDA came in around £3.5 million ahead of the first half, pointing to genuine operational momentum rather than a one-off accounting benefit.
The update builds on commentary issued at the launch of Optima's open offer, which indicated full-year adjusted EBITDA, including the procurement settlement, would be at least in line with consensus, making Friday's guidance a meaningful upgrade on that earlier signal.
The open offer, which is designed to repay a £30 million bridge facility used to fund the acquisition of PAM Group, remains ongoing, with trading in the open offer shares expected to commence on 24 April.
Panmure describes the PAM acquisition as transformative, arguing it takes Optima directly to its medium-term revenue target of £200 million and meaningfully advances management's ambition to capture 25% of the UK occupational health market.
The broker sees significant economies of scale emerging from the combined group over time, supporting margin expansion beyond current levels.
Panmure is keeping its 225p target price in place pending completion of the transaction and a full trading update expected later in the second quarter, at which point it intends to revise its estimates, with a proforma valuation of 250p flagged as appropriate once the deal closes.