Target Corp (NYSE:TGT) may have more earnings upside ahead than the market is currently pricing in, according to a new note from Jefferies analysts, who argue that the retailer’s recovery narrative is being overly focused on sales trends rather than profitability improvements.
The analysts said the current view of Target is largely centered on a slow recovery in comparable sales, supported by easier year-on-year comparisons. However, they believe that this framing misses what they see as the primary driver of future performance, which is margins.
“We think TGT's recovery is being misread as just a traffic story on easy compares, when in reality, the real upside here is margin‑led,” they wrote.
Jefferies forecasts Target’s EPS to grow about 7.6% in 2026 versus 2.3% sales growth, above consensus expectations of 5.5% EPS growth and 1.9% sales growth.
The analysts also argue the market is underestimating the degree of operating leverage in the business, stating they expect EPS to grow by greater than 3x net sales in 2026.
A key part of the thesis is a potential normalization in product mix. Over recent years, Target’s sales have tilted toward food and household essentials, while higher-margin discretionary categories such as apparel and home goods have lagged. The analysts suggest that management’s renewed merchandising focus could gradually restore balance, noting that even a partial mix shift toward discretionary products could lift gross margins without requiring a strong rebound in traffic.
Another factor highlighted is markdown discipline. Jefferies points to past execution challenges, including inconsistent inventory levels, assortment clutter, and weaker sell-through, that have contributed to higher discounting. They argued that operational improvements, such as cleaner assortments and better in-store execution, could reduce the need for markdowns.
“Even modest markdown improvement would translate into a disproportionate lift in GP and cleaner working capital,” the analysts wrote.
The report also emphasizes the importance of operating leverage. Because Target’s cost structure is described as highly fixed below the gross margin line, incremental gross profit can translate strongly into earnings. Jefferies illustrates this by estimating that a roughly 60 basis point improvement in gross margin could add about $400 million in gross profit and around $1 in EPS, underscoring what it sees as meaningful flow-through potential.
While acknowledging ongoing cost pressures from areas such as wages and fuel, the analysts suggest that incremental investment in store labor could support better product availability and stronger full-price sales. This, they argue, could help offset some of the near-term cost headwinds while improving overall execution.
“The debate is shifting from whether comps turn positive to how quickly the profit and loss (P&L) normalizes once they do, and that is where we see the most upside,” the analysts concluded.
Target shares traded hands at about $123 on Wednesday afternoon, up more than 25% so far this year.