BP PLC (LSE:BP.) said its first-quarter results will be shaped by volatile commodity markets, with stronger trading and refining margins partly offset by higher costs.
Ahead of full first-quarter results later in April, the oil major said it expects upstream production to be broadly flat compared with the fourth quarter of 2025, with slightly higher gas output offset by a small decline in oil production.
Higher oil prices are expected to support earnings, with Brent averaging $81 a barrel in the period, up from $63.73 in the previous quarter.
BP said oil production and operations should benefit from a positive earnings impact of $0.1 billion to $0.2 billion, while refining margins are also expected to improve by a similar amount.
Trading performance is set to strengthen, with oil trading described as "exceptional" compared with a weak prior quarter.
However, the group expects net debt to rise to between $25 billion and $27 billion, driven by a working capital build of up to $7 billion linked to the higher price environment.
The company said heightened volatility in oil, gas and refined products markets had increased price dislocations and timing effects, adding uncertainty to reported results ahead of its update on 28 April.