- FTSE 100 up 26 points to 10,609
- Oil prices dip on hopes for more US-Iran talks
- Updates from Imperial Brands, BP, Intertek, PageGroup
5.15pm: Oil outlook uncertain
As investors awaited an update on further US-Iran peace talks, the FTSE 100 finished the day up 26 points at 10,609, as oil prices fell.
“Crude prices fell below $96 per barrel as markets reacted to signs that the US and Iran may resume negotiations, easing some immediate supply concerns following Washington’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz,” IG chief technical analyst Axel Rudolph said.
“Despite the pullback in oil, the broader outlook remains uncertain, with the IEA warning the conflict could wipe out global oil demand growth this year - marking the first annual decline since the pandemic - while ongoing damage to energy infrastructure and restricted shipping continue to weigh on supply.”
4.10pm: Oil drops, pound and mid-caps rally
The FTSE 100 is slightly above flat as the session heads towards the final trades.
But the more domestically focused FTSE 250 and mainland European markets are up a lot higher, with the UK mid cap index up over 400 points or 1.8% at 22,680, while Germany's DAX has climbed 1.35% and others around the continent are up 1.1%-1.3%
London's blue-chip index has the brakes being applied by falls for giants including Imperial Brands, down over 5%, followed by declines of at least 2% for Shell, BAT, Tesco and BP, with Glencore, BAE and Haleon are down alongside housebuilders and utilities.
The pound is also weighing on some companies as it extends gains today, says market analyst Kathleen Brooks at XTB, resulting from the dollar slipping back.
Oil prices have also dropped back, with Brent down almost 3% to $96.5 a barrel.
Brooks also flags that a 10-year Gilt auction earlier saw the UK pay the highest yield since 2008, though 10-year yields are down 5bps today on the back of the falling oil price.
"The price the government had to pay to borrow for 10 years was 4.9%, a significant premium on the 4.76% market price for UK 10-year bonds. In this environment you would assume that a government would halt borrowing, however, benefit costs ramped up at the start of April, which means higher debt repayments and erosion of the UK’s fiscal headroom in the coming months."
She says asset prices are willing to look through potential risks "and focus instead on continued hopes about a positive outcome for the war in the Middle East, which could shift expectations once more".
Brooks says hopes "are rising that the conflict between the US and Iran is in its end stages, after Iran announced that it would not let vessels pass the Strait of Hormuz in an attempt to keep peace talks with the US live".
If events in the Middle East continue to de-escalate, she says the market can than "focus on other things, including earnings".
3.22pm: Amazon taking on SpaceX's Starlink
Earlier, Amazon agreed to buy Globalstar in a deal aimed at expanding its satellite telecommunications connectivity.
The acquisition will allow Amazon’s low-Earth orbit network, Amazon Leo, to add services that connect directly to mobile phones, enabling voice, text and data coverage beyond traditional cellular networks.
Globalstar already powers emergency features on Apple iPhones and watches, with the tech titan also owning a 20% stake.
Amazon said the move would combine Globalstar’s satellite infrastructure and spectrum licences with its own network, creating a platform capable of supporting hundreds of millions of devices globally.
The acquisition means Amazon is "snapping even harder at SpaceX’s heels", says Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell.
"It elevates Amazon’s position in the space economy and means Elon Musk now has a competitor with deep pockets. Globalstar lacks the scale of SpaceX but is now in a stronger position to play catch-up."
2.51pm: Wall Street opens higher
US stocks have opened higher, with the Nasdaq climbing over 1% to exceed its levels from before the US and Israel began attacks on Iran.
The S&P 500 has risen 0.5% and the Dow Jones 0.2%.
Top risers on the S&P are Oracle, Robinhood, Coinbase, Carvana, Axon Enterprise, Ares Management, Fair Isaac and Super Micro Computer.
2.12pm: IMF forecasts
The UK will be hit hardest of all major economies by the rise in energy prices from the war in the Gulf, the International Monetary Fund has forecast.
In the new World Economic Outlook released by the IMF today, estimates for UK growth this year were cut to 0.8%, from the 1.3% prediction made at the start of the year.
Slower growth is expected because the impact of higher energy prices is expected to linger into next year, while also resulting in the Bank of England postponing interest rate cuts it was thought likely to make this year.
The UK is forecast to see inflation of 3.2%, the joint highest inflation in the G7 with the US, falling to 2.4% in 2027.
UK inflation is seen heading towards 4% at points, before returning to the BoE's 2% target by the end of 2027.
Globally, the IMF said the worst-case scenario would be that oil, gas and food prices spike and remain high this year and next, resulting in global growth falling below 2% in 2026.
"This would mean a close call for a global recession which has happened only four times since 1980," the report said, with the last time being during the Covid pandemic.
1.50pm: Hormuz tanker watch
Three or more tankers have entered the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, shipping data shows.
One Panama-flagged ship heading for the UAE, following two tankers earlier passing through the narrow waterway unaffected by the US blockade as they were not heading to Iranian ports.
Two Chinese listed vessels were said to have challenged the US blockade this morning and passed through the Strait without any attempt by the US to stop them.
Other reports on the BBC suggested two vessels turned off their tracking devices to visit Iranian ports.
1.17pm: Housebuilders downgraded
Analysts at Morgan Stanley have turned more cautious on UK housebuilders, downgrading Barratt Redrow and Berkeley Group as the escalation of the Iran conflict reverses expectations of near-term interest rate cuts and amplifies both inflation and affordability risks.
The US bank cut price targets across its coverage by an average of 21%, with Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey and Vistry also caught up in the scissor-work.
The note's central argument is that rising geopolitical risk has pushed oil and energy prices higher, driving swap rates up and removing the prospect of imminent rate cuts that had underpinned cautious optimism about a housing demand recovery.
12.46pm: US futures mixed
US stocks are pointing to a mixed open as investors weigh fresh developments in US-Iran talks alongside the start of a busy earnings week.
Futures for the Dow Jones are slightly in the red, while S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% and those for the Nasdaq-100 have gained 0.4%.
US oil prices have remained softer, with West Texas Intermediate crude down 1.4% at $97.71 a barrel, while Brent continues to edge higher.
Back in London, the FTSE has crawled back onto dry land.
12.03pm: FTSE dip
The FTSE 100 has dipped 10 points into the red, as several of the index's largest companies are sitting below water at present.
This includes Imperial Brands, down over 6% now, rival BAT, down 3.9%, plus consumer facing groups Tesco, Unilver and Sainsbury's; defence giant BAE Systems; oil giants Shell and BP; and utilities National Grid, Vodafone and Airtel.
"Markets are sending a somewhat counterintuitive signal this week," says market analyst Daniel Hathorn at Capital.com, "with risk assets holding firm, and in some cases rallying, despite a renewed deterioration in the geopolitical backdrop".
The breakdown in ceasefire talks at the weekend and US blockade initially pushed oil higher and have seen a relatively muted reaction, "suggesting investors are increasingly looking through near-term volatility".
There seems to have been a shift in how markets are interpreting the conflict, she says.
"Previously, the narrative was straightforward: the longer the war dragged on, the worse the outlook for growth, inflation and risk assets.
"Now, the dynamic appears to have flipped. With a ceasefire framework still loosely in place and the US attempting to control the Strait, the absence of escalation, rather than the presence of conflict, is being treated as a positive signal. In other words, each day without a major disruption to Gulf energy infrastructure is being read as incremental progress toward stabilisation."
She says equities have been able to partly now "decouple, at least temporarily from oil".
However, she says, this "raises questions about complacency" as we get deeper into earnings season on both sides of the Atlantic.
11.48pm: JPMorgan shares down on earnings
Shares in banking giant JPMorgan are down 3% in premarket trading despite it reporting first-quarter results ahead of Wall Street expectations, with strong trading and investment banking activity lifting profits.
The US lender revealed net income rose 13% to $16.5 billion, with earnings per share up 28% to $5.94 per share, on net revenue of $49.84 billion.
Analysts had expected EPS of about $5.30 and revenue of roughly $48.8 billion, according to consensus estimates.
Shares had risen almost 10% over the past month, which may explain the premarket fall, echoing that from Goldman Sachs yesterday.
11.40am: European leaders plan Hormuz meeting
Oil prices are creepiong higher again, with Brent crude now just under $99 a barrel, up from below $97 earlier.
UK and French leaders Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron will host a summit in Paris on Friday focused on efforts to reopen the strait of Hormuz.
Newswires report that senior diplomats will hold video call talks tomorrow ahead of a leaders meeting.
Earlier, Iran’s President, Masoud Pezeshkian, held a call with Macron where he urged Europe to play a more active role in pushing the US toward a lasting ceasefire deal.
Pezeshkian said Iran was ready to continue peace talks.
"Despite expert-level understandings between the sides, excessive demands and a lack of political will among senior US officials have prevented a deal from being finalized,” he said, per Iran state media.
"Approaches based on threats, pressure and military action are not effective and will only add to the complexity of the issues."
Last night, US vice-president JD Vance said the US delegation left Pakistan without a deal as their counterparts were "unable to cut a deal and they had to go back to Tehran, either from the Supreme Leader or somebody else and actually get approval to the turn".
He said: "whether we ultimately get to a deal, I really think the ball is in the Iranian court because we put a lot on the table. We actually made very clear what our red lines were."
President Trump, he added, has said "he would be very happy if Iran was treated like a normal country".
JD Vance says the Iranian delegation in Pakistan lacked authority to finalize a deal and needed approval from higher leadership.
“This is ultimately why we left Pakistan because what we figured out is that they were unable.”
“I think the team that was there was unable to cut a… pic.twitter.com/Rptd20jDfZ
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) April 13, 2026
10.58am: IEA: oil demand to shrink for first time since Covid
Global oil demand will contract this year for the first time since the pandemic, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned in its latest report, as the Iran war reshapes the energy outlook.
The April IEA report says global supply collapsed by 10.1 million barrels per day in March – the largest disruption in history – as attacks on infrastructure and blockades through the Strait of Hormuz choked off flows.
Physical crude prices surged to nearly $150 a barrel, while North Sea Dated crude was trading around $130 at the time of the report – some $60 above pre-conflict levels.
The IEA's base case assumes Middle East flows partially resume by mid-year, though it acknowledges that could prove too optimistic.
"Resuming flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains the single most important variable in easing the pressure on energy supplies, prices and the global economy," the reoport says.
10.12am: Small cap movers
Among the small cap movers, TheraCryf PLC has jumped 23% after the addiction-focused biotech said it had rejected a bid for its lead neuropsychiatry assets.
The board unanimously concluded that the approach, which targeted the company's Orexin-1 receptor blocker and dopamine transporter programmes, did not reflect the current or future value of the assets and was not in the best interests of shareholders.
Block Energy has leapt 27% after the development company signed a binding farm-out deal with China's Zhijiang Sanning Energy for its Georgia gas assets in a deal carrying up to $75 million in fully carried costs.
Under the agreement, Sanning will acquire a 51% interest in Project III, with Block retaining a 49% stake and continuing as operator throughout the appraisal programme.
hVIVO rose 11% after the clinical development specialist announced a new influenza human challenge trial contract and unveiled a unified brand identity on the same day.
The contract announcement coincided with the launch of hVIVO's new brand identity, which consolidates its operating companies, including recently acquired Venn Life Sciences, CRS and Cryostore, under a single hVIVO name.
Elsewhere, AIM-listed Forgent, the company formerly known as EQTEC, fell 26% after the company agreed the acquisition of a 51% stake in the Peak Hills gold-copper exploration project in Western Australia and a placing to raise £1.3 million at a 35% discount to the prevailing market price.
9.28am: PageGroup reports further fall in profits
PageGroup shares wobbled in early trading, down 6%, but have quickly recovered back to parity as the recruiter reported a fall in first-quarter profit as weaker hiring conditions in the UK and Europe offset growth in the Americas and Asia Pacific.
Following an 8.7%% fall in gross profits last year, the FTSE 250 group said 2026 started with profit falling 4.9%, reflecting "ongoing subdued levels of client and candidate confidence" amid heightened geopolitical and macro-economic uncertainty.
Chief executive Nicholas Kirk said the group "produced another resilient performance despite a backdrop of heightened geopolitical and macro-economic uncertainty", with performance uneven across regions.
Strong growth in the US and Asia Pacific marked a sixth and fourth consecutive quarter of expansion, respectively, while France and the UK saw the lowest levels of confidence.
9.12am: FTSE edging higher, mid-caps rallying
After just over an hour, the FTSE 100 has edged its way up 34 points to 10,617.
Its 0.3% gain is outdone by the FTSE 250, which is up 203 points or 0.9% to 22,480.
Intertek and the miners are continuing to lead the way for the blue-chips, offset by falls for oil and tobacco heavyweights.
On the mid-cap index, top risers are THG (JPMorgan has increased its EPS forecasts as part of a sector note), Ceres, Aston Martin, Oxford Nanopore and Wizz Air.
Mainland European stock markets are in the green too, with Germany's DAX up 1% and France's CAC up 0.5%.
Market analyst Victoria Scholar at Interactive Investor says the trading positivity is "reflecting hopes that the US and Iran will resume peace talks. US Vice President JD Vance said there was progress in the negotiation, helping oil push back below $100 a barrel despite the further uncertainty created by the US blockade of Iran’s ports and the breakdown of peace talks over the weekend."
US futures are pointing to gains of 0.1-0.3%.
"What war?" cries Saxo's Neil Wilson, back from his Easter hols and flagging that the S&P 500 has now "clawed back all of its losses since the war began on 28 February" after last night's rally saw it close above the 27 Feb closing price before the shooting started between the US and Iran.
The Nasdaq Composite also rising above its pre-war closing level, but the Dow Jones has a little further to go to achieve the feat.
In the mood for rhetorical questions, he goes on. "Why the resilience? Basically, it’s a P/E story. A forward PE for the broad market of around 20 is not excessive.
"On the one side of this is the fact rates haven’t spiked. Whilst we saw [government bond] yields rise through the month of March, they’ve since cooled and we have not seen any aggressive moves leading to dislocations."
After rising from around 3.95% to above 4.4% from when the war started at the end of Febuary to the end of March, the US 10-year Treasury yield has since pulled back to around 4.25% today.
US earnings is the other key element, with Wall Street analysts expecting EPS growth of 19.3% this year.
"This seems a very high bar to clear. As we enter earnings season this assumption will be put to the test," says Wilson.
8.44am: Intertek merger might surprise
The Intertek de-merger "may come as a surprise," says analyst Joe Brent at Panmure Liberum, as the company "has typically not sold businesses, unlike others (e.g. Eurofins who have announced the sale of their electrical operations to UL Solutions today for €575m)."
However, he notes that consumer products and corporate assurance are the two highest-margin divisions, and both have strong growth outlooks, so a successful de-merger "would therefore increase the quality of that part of the group".
Brent adds three key points on the macroeconomic backdrop to the potential split: 1) There are concerns around Oil & Gas, but consumer and US construction seem robust; 2) Intertek is exposed to high-growth geographies; and 3) AI presents opportunities for productivity improvements and growth.
He flags that the shares are trading on a PE of 14.2x, which is a discount to peers and its historic average.
"A de-merger may be earnings dilutive, as overheads are increased, but we would expect the Consumer Products and Corporate Assurance businesses to trade on a much higher rating."
8.24pm: Let's get this Strait
The US and Iran will send negotiation teams back to Islamabad in Pakistan later this week to resume peace talks, according to a Reuters report.
Talks will focus on easing tensions and exploring steps toward a broader agreement, the sources said.
Meanwhile, some maritime traffic has made it through the Strait of Hormuz in the face of the US blockade.
A Chinese-owned tanker under US sanctions passed through, data from Kpler and MarineTraffic showed earlier today.
President Trump posted last night that 34 ships traversed the Strait yesterday, "by far the highest number since this foolish closure began".
Data from Kpler suggested the actual number of ships that transited the Strait yesterday was four.
8.15am: FTSE inches higher at open
The FTSE 100 has inched higher in Tuesday's opening trades, led by gains for miners, airlines and various others.
Testing and inspection group Intertek Group has jumped over 13% to top the early leaderboard after it launched a strategic review that could lead to a break-up of the business.
Next come miners Fresnillo, Antofagasta, Endeavour and Anglo American, all up arond 2-3%, with British Airways owner IAG and commodities and mining giant Glencore not far behind.
On the other side of the coin, Imperial Brands is leading the fallers, down 5.3%, as its trading update does not appear to be well-received.
Sector rival British American Tobacco is down 1% as investors read across.
Defence group BAE Systems is down 1% on potential lowering of heat from the Middle East conflict.
BP is down 0.65% as its bullish trading update is offset by a fall in the price of oil futures. Shell is down 0.5%.
8am: Imperial Brands backs outlook
Imperial Brands has kept its full-year guidance unchanged as pricing in its core tobacco business continues to offset volume declines, while investment in next-generation products (NGPs) weighed on profits.
The FTSE 100 tobacco group said it expects low-single-digit growth in tobacco and NGP net revenue in the first half, with adjusted operating profit slightly higher year on year.
Growth is expected to accelerate in the second half, in line with previous guidance, as earlier price increases feed through and investment phasing supports performance.
Tobacco pricing remains the main driver of growth, while newer categories such as heated tobacco, vaping and oral nicotine continue to expand, though losses from NGPs are likely to increase slightly.
7.43am: Food sales values lifted by higher prices
Total UK retail sales were up 3.6% last month compared to a year ago, up from 1.1% growth in February, according to the British Retail Consortium.
Like-for-like sales rose by 3.1% year-on-year in March, up from 0.7% in February, well above the consensus forecast of 0.9%.
Food sales increased 6.8%, above the 2.9% growth in February and the 12-month average of 4.3%.
Non-food sales edged up 0.9%, improving from 0.4% the month before but below the 12-month average growth of 1.1%.
Helen Dickinson, the BRC chief executive, said it was an earlier Easter that "provided a much-needed boost to food sales as families came together over the long weekend".
Inflation was the "key factor" for driving the value of food and drink sales higher, according to Linda Ellett at KPMG.
(As a Deutsche Bank analyst pointed out yesterday, as demand for food is relatively resilient, grocers are "largely able to pass through cost inflation", ie raise prices to maintain their margins.)
Dickinson says non-food was "more uneven", with robust demand for computers, toys, and homeware, but clothing and footwear continued to struggle.
"The disruption to international travel caused by the Middle East conflict also hit sales of travel-related goods."
She said the outlook is "uncertain" for the sector, as the Gulf war has damaged supply chains, with rising costs for shipping, fertiliser, insurance and commodities.
7.30am: BP hails 'exceptional' quarter for oil trading, but higher costs
BP says its first-quarter results will be shaped by volatile commodity markets, with stronger trading and refining margins partly offset by higher costs.
The oil major has released a trading update ahead of full first-quarter results later in April, with the big difference from the previous quarter being that Brent crude oil averaged $81 a barrel in the period, up from $63.73 in the previous quarter.
It expects upstream production to be broadly flat compared with the fourth quarter of 2025, with slightly higher gas output offset by a small decline in oil production.
Oil trading is described as "exceptional" compared with a weak prior quarter.
7.17am: Flat FTSE predicted as US and Iran plan more talks
A flat start for the FTSE 100 is predicted on Tuesday, as oil prices eased on renewed optimism that the US and Iran might still reach a peace deal.
London's blue-chip share index has been called around two points higher on the futures market, having dropped almost 18 points at the start of the week to close at 10,582.96.
US stocks reversed a negative start to finish higher overnight, with the Nasdaq climbing 1.2% and the S&P 500 rising just over 1%, while the Dow Jones added 0.6%.
Asian markets are mixed this morning, with the Nikkei and Kospi are storming 2.2% and 3% higher in Tokyo and Seoul, while in Mumbai the Sensex has dropped 0.9%.
Brent crude is back down to $98.40 a barrel, having topped $103 on Monday.
"The market optimism has continued this morning," says macro analyst Henry Allen at Deutsche Bank, saying the drop in crude prices is "easing fears about a stagflationary shock".
"So as far as markets are concerned, the expectation remains that this is still likely to be a temporary conflict, with the oil futures curve heavily downward-sloping."
He notes that the mood steadily improved after Donald Trump said: “I can tell you that we've been called by the other side. They'd like to make a deal very badly".
The US and Iran are in discussions about another round of negotiations, Bloomberg has reported, with the goal being to hold those talks before the two-week ceasefire expires in a week’s time, echoing a similar a story from Axios earlier in the day.