- FTSE 100 down 3 points to 10,600
- Islamabad to host weekend peace talks
- Retail footfall recovers in March
- Asian markets higher on ceasefire optimism
5.15pm: Quiet session
It was a quiet day for equities as investors awaited US-Iran peace talks this weekend, with the FTSE 100 finishing the session down 3 points at 10,600 amid continued elevated oil prices.
“Despite coming off by more than 10% during the week, crude prices remain elevated - close to $100 per barrel - as ongoing Middle East tensions, including Israeli strikes in Lebanon and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, keep supply risks elevated in spite of a US-Iran two-week ceasefire announcement,” IG chief technical analyst Axel Rudolph said.
“The situation remains fragile, with shipping still largely halted, Saudi output reduced by around 600,000 barrels per day following attacks, and key infrastructure damaged, while diplomatic efforts continue with further talks scheduled.”
1.37pm: Trustpilot flying high
Trustpilot Group shares are up 6% mid-afternoon after JP Morgan named it as a "clear AI winner" with potential upside of more than 100% over the next four years.
In a research note, analyst Joseph George maps out a path for Trustpilot (LON: TRST), the online consumer reviews platform, to reach its target of a 30% adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) margin by 2030.
JPM's illustrative model suggests Trustpilot could grow adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow at a compound annual rate of more than 30% between 2026 and 2030, a pace well above the sector average across the bank's software coverage
12.28pm: Blue-chips hold the line
The UK blue-chip index is holding firm in early afternoon trading, up around 36 points at 10,640, as investors eye weekend talks between the US and Iran with cautious optimism following Wednesday's two-week ceasefire agreement.
Wall Street is set for a mixed open. Dow futures are nudging lower, off 21 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are pointing modestly higher, up 3.5 and 33 points respectively, suggesting tech is carrying the load as traders digest the easing of Middle East tensions against a backdrop of oil prices that remain elevated but have retreated sharply from their recent peaks.
Brent and WTI both fell below $100 a barrel on the ceasefire news, taking pressure off energy costs but wrong-footing the oil majors. For now, the mood is watchful rather than euphoric. One deal does not end a war.
10.30am: Next stop, US inflation report
The tone remains cautious among European markets this morning, with the FTSE 100 now up 46 points at 10,649.02, while the Paris market is less than 0.1% higher and Frankfurt has dipped into the red.
With talks between Tehran and Washington set to get underway on Saturday, AJ Bell’s head of markets Dan Coatsworth said investors could be in for a fretful weekend as they wait for indications of whether a path to lasting peace is possible. Ahead of this, investors may well be tempted to hedge their bets.
“The ceasefire agreement announced earlier this week has felt fragile at times, although news that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has approved direct talks with Lebanon could address one of the key sticking points between the parties," he said.
Later today, Coatsworth said a reading of US inflation for March may show the initial impact of the war on prices.
"The headline figure is likely to have been pushed up by higher fuel prices at the pump – one of the very first things to be impacted by the conflict," he said. “For this reason, there may be greater focus on the core number – which strips out food and energy – to see if inflationary pressures are seeping into other parts of the economy.
9.30am: FTSE's 'defensive qualities'
The FTSE 100 has built on this morning's early gains, now up 19 points at 10,622.24.
While oil majors BP and Shell are exerting pressure, interactive investor's Richard Hunter said this has been offset by some selective buying among the housebuilders, who have enjoyed a positive week following the likelihood of monetary tightening being increasingly off the table.
"Retailers also found some friends after what has been a challenging few months, although the gains were far from spectacular," Hunter added.
Among the housebuilders, Barratt Redrow PLC (LSE:BTRW) is up 0.8% and Persimmon PLC (LSE:PSN) has gained 0.7%. Retailers Burberry Group PLC (LSE:BRBY) and Next PLC (LSE:NXT) have gained 2.3% and 1% respectively.
"As the primary index edged ahead, taking its gain to 6.9% in the year so far, the more domestically focused FTSE250 reduced its losses for the year to just 0.8% after a more sprightly open," Hunter said. "The FTSE100 continues to be something of a beacon of light in an unsettled world, with its defensive qualities continuing to stand relatively firm.”
8.15am: FTSE cautiously higher
After a tentative start, the FTSE 100 is edging higher in early trade, currently up just 6 points at 10,609.45.
Pershing Square Holdings (LSE:PSH) is leading the gainers with a 2.4% rise, while British Airways owner International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (LSE:IAG) has gained 1.2% as Brent crude oil holds below $100 a barrel. Also gaining are JD Sports Fashion PLC (LSE:JD., OTC:JDSPY), up 1.1% and Polar Capital Technology Trust PLC (LSE:PCT), with a 1% gain.
On the loser board, Compass Group PLC (LSE:CPG) is down 3.3%, BP PLC (LSE:BP.) has shed 1.8% and Reckitt Benckiser Group PLC (LSE:RKT, FRA:3RB, XETRA:3RB) is 1.2% weaker. Shell PLC (LSE:SHEL, NYSE:SHEL) is also down 1.1%, reflecting the 11% decline in the oil price over the past week.
8.05am: Retailers not out of the woods
UK retail footfall picked up in March, offering a welcome break after a weak February. Data from the BRC–Sensormatic monitor shows total visits rose 2.4% year on year, with gains across High Streets, retail parks and shopping centres. Northern Ireland led regional growth, while all parts of the UK saw improvements.
However, analysts cautioned against reading too much into the bounce. The British Retail Consortium said the uplift was softer than expected, while Sensormatic highlighted the boost from Easter timing. With cost pressures and weaker confidence still in play, the big question is whether shoppers keep returning once seasonal effects fade.
7.55am: A firmer footing
Markets appear to be on a firmer footing this morning, with volatility continuing to ease ahead of US–Iran talks due in Islamabad tomorrow.
Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid noted that the tone has remained constructive, saying: “The market tone has remained positive this morning, with oil prices steady and fresh gains for global equities ahead of the US-Iran talks in Islamabad tomorrow.”
Reid noted that the S&P 500 has now posted seven consecutive gains, with futures pointing to a potential eighth session of advances, while Brent crude is holding broadly steady around $96 a barrel. The VIX has also slipped back below its pre-strike level, signalling further easing in financial stress.
Sentiment has been supported by signs of de-escalation in the Middle East, including reports of potential direct Israel–Lebanon talks and comments suggesting a scaling back of military operations, helping to offset earlier concerns around the ceasefire outlook. Overall, Reid said markets remain focused on diplomacy and the prospect of reduced geopolitical risk heading into the weekend negotiations.
7.15am: FTSE 100 seen higher as ceasefire steadies sentiment
The FTSE 100 is set to open higher on Friday, with a US-Iran ceasefire holding, though confidence remains fragile ahead of peace talks in Islamabad tomorrow.
Futures point to a gain of around 20 points, a day after the index slipped 5 points to 10,603 as Middle East volatility capped the recent relief rally.
Overnight, US markets pushed higher, led by tech, as investors looked past geopolitics and turned to inflation data. March CPI is expected at 3.3%, the highest since May 2024, reflecting elevated oil prices.
The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.8%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both gained 0.6%.
In Asia, markets followed Wall Street higher, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 1.8% and South Korea’s Kospi rising 1.5%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 0.6%, and China’s Shanghai Composite gained 0.7%, while Australia’s ASX 200edged 0.1% lower.
Brent crude is up 0.8% at $96.70 a barrel, still below the key $100 level but keeping inflation concerns in focus.