The Dutch national team will win this summer's FIFA World Cup, that's according to a market strategist at Panmure Liberum who claims to have successfully predicted the last three tournaments.
It's a bold outsider call that runs against the betting market and sets up what the broker says would be one of the tournament’s biggest shocks.
The market strategist, Joachim Klement, who says he correctly forecast Germany in 2014, France in 2018 and Argentina in 2022, says his statistical model points to the Netherlands lifting the trophy in a final against Portugal.
Klement says his model blends socioeconomic inputs, including GDP per capita, population, temperature, host-country advantage and FIFA ranking points. He estimates it explains about 55% of World Cup success, with the remaining 45% left to luck.
The Panmure man also predicts Japan will knock out Brazil in the round of 32 which he describes as “likely one of the biggest upsets in World Cup history”.