easyJet PLC (LSE:EZJ) has emerged as the most compelling buy opportunity among European airline stocks following a broad sector sell-off, with its shares now trading close to the valuation lows last seen during the 2008 global financial crisis.
The low-cost carrier's price-to-book ratio, a measure that compares a company's share price to the net value of its assets, has fallen to levels that historically have marked extreme stress points for the stock, suggesting much of the bad news is already reflected in the price.
Consumer spending data from Barclaycard covering the past six months shows weakness across three major UK airlines, and Citi notes this deterioration is already well understood by investors, with positioning and valuations reflecting the subdued outlook.
In a worst-case scenario drawing on historical troughs from 2004 and the Covid crash of 2020, Citi estimates around 22% to 26% of further downside remains possible, but argues the potential upside significantly outweighs this risk.
A recovery in EasyJet's valuation back toward its long-run average price-to-book ratio would imply 74% upside from current levels.
This scenario, the bank says, would require the company to generate a return on equity, the profit generated relative to shareholder funds, of approximately 13.4%, modestly below the 15% it achieved between its financial years 2022 and 2025.
Even on Citi's more conservative price target, which already applies a discount to reflect weak expected cash generation through to 2030, the stock offers around 36% upside from current levels.