Prediction market data shows traders divided on whether Bitcoin can sustain its rebound from a 52% peak-to-trough decline
Traders on Polymarket, the decentralised prediction market platform, are placing the highest probability on Bitcoin reaching $75,000 before the end of April, as the cryptocurrency trades around $71,000 following a week of steady recovery.
The $75,000 outcome carries a 57% implied probability, the highest of any price band tracked by the market, while the $65,000 band shows a 47% probability, reflecting the market's assessment that Bitcoin is likely to hold that level rather than retrace.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $71,006, flat on the day but up 5.5% over the past week, as sentiment improves following a difficult opening quarter that saw the asset fall more than 52% from its all-time high of $126,198, reached in October 2025.
The rebound has been supported by continued institutional buying, with MicroStrategy, the world's largest corporate Bitcoin holder, acquiring 4,871 Bitcoin worth approximately $329.9 million in the first week of April alone.
Bitcoin exchange-traded fund inflows have also remained robust, with total cumulative inflows surpassing $53 billion and BlackRock's IBIT fund leading in March with $1.399 billion of net new money.
The Polymarket data assigns only 17% odds to Bitcoin reaching $80,000 in April, with probabilities falling sharply for higher price bands, suggesting traders view a near-term breakout above that level as unlikely.
The $150,000 target, shown separately on the platform, carries implied odds of just 10%, indicating that while traders see $65,000 as a floor for the month, they do not regard current levels as a launching pad toward record highs in the near term.
Geopolitical developments have also contributed to improved risk appetite, with a Pakistan-brokered ceasefire proposal between the United States and Iran prompting traders to unwind more than $270 million in short Bitcoin positions.