Moderna Inc (NASDAQ:MRNA, XETRA:0QF) is expected to highlight progress in international COVID-19 vaccine markets when it reports first quarter 2026 results, according to analysts at Bank of America.
They noted that the 2025-2026 vaccine season is winding down, and the company’s litigation risks are largely in the past following a $950 million upfront payment in the first quarter, though analysts note the potential for up to $1.3 billion in additional payments depending on the outcome of an ongoing legal appeal.
In the US, Moderna has indicated that a shift to its higher-priced mNEXSPIKE product could help offset stagnating or declining vaccination rates.
Outside the US, investors are expected to focus on agreements with countries such as the UK, which could contribute an estimated $200 million in the first quarter. Bank of America noted that "many markets are opening to Moderna following expiry of pandemic-era agreements," suggesting the international market could be a significant growth driver.
Bank of America projects that Moderna’s ex-US opportunities will remain a focal point throughout the year, as management has indicated that both U.S. and international markets will contribute to the company’s guidance of up to 10% revenue growth in 2026.
The analysts slightly reduced their revenue projections for Moderna’s respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine, describing the market as “still a show-me story,” while increasing COVID-19 revenue expectations based on updated vaccination rate assumptions.
Overall, Bank of America estimates blended revenue growth of approximately 7% in 2026 compared with 2025, within the company’s guidance range.
For the first quarter, total revenues are projected at $305 million, including $200 million from the U.K. COVID booster program and $50 million from a partnership with Pennsylvania-based partners. Investors will also monitor updates on influenza vaccine submissions and the timing of data for Moderna’s candidate intismeran.
Bank of America reiterated its ‘Underperform’ rating and $31 price target, noting that shares are running ahead of intismeran updates this year.
Moderna stock traded up 3.5% at about $52 on Wednesday afternoon.