SP Angel initiates with a buy as a shallow exploration target hints at open-pit potential at Mushima North.
The publication of a JORC exploration target at Tertiary Minerals PLC (AIM:TYM, OTC:TTIRF, FRA:TMU) Mushima North project marks the first concrete step in what could become one of the more compelling small-cap silver stories on AIM.
The numbers are not trivial.
Between 15 million and 30 million tonnes grading at 40 to 60 grams per tonne silver-equivalent is a meaningful envelope for a project that remains open in multiple directions and has yet to identify its primary mineralisation source at depth.
That second point deserves particular attention.
The current target covers only the near-surface oxide zone, a weathered cap that typically forms above a more substantial primary sulphide system.
Whether a high-grade feeder exists beneath the A1 Target is unknown, but the possibility alone materially changes the risk-reward calculus for investors willing to sit with early-stage exploration.
The geometry of the deposit also works in Tertiary's favour.
A flat-lying tabular body stretching 500 metres by 300 metres and up to 75 metres thick is precisely the configuration that makes bulk open-pit mining economically viable, particularly in Zambia, where existing infrastructure and an established regulatory framework reduce development friction relative to less mature African jurisdictions.
Broker SP Angel's valuation argument is straightforward and difficult to dismiss.
At 0.24% of in-situ value against a peer average of 3.9%, Tertiary is pricing in almost total project failure.
That gap rarely persists once a JORC Mineral Resource Estimate arrives, because the MRE forces the market to apply a more structured framework to the asset.
Management has set a year-end target for that maiden MRE, supported by infill drilling, metallurgical test work and mining studies, all of which will run concurrently.
The risk is execution: drilling campaigns in central Africa carry logistical and timing uncertainty, and metallurgical results on oxide silver deposits can disappoint.
But at a market capitalisation of £4.3 million, the asymmetry strongly favours the upside case.