Australian shares are poised to open sharply higher, with ASX 200 futures up 130 points, or 1.5%, to 8643 near 7am AEDT, following a strong lead from Wall Street as signs emerge that the US-Iran conflict may be nearing an end.
The positive open follows a modest gain in the previous session, with the S&P/ASX 200 closing Tuesday up 20.80 points, or 0.3%, at 8481.80. The session was volatile, with the index swinging between a 0.5% loss and a near 1% gain before finishing higher.
Despite the late recovery, the benchmark declined 7.8% over the month — its worst performance since June 2022 — as escalating Middle East tensions drove oil prices sharply higher. For the quarter, the index fell 2.8%.
Investor sentiment improved after reports that US President Donald Trump is willing to end the military campaign against Iran without reopening the Strait of Hormuz, easing fears of prolonged supply disruptions.
US markets
US equities rallied strongly overnight, with all three major benchmarks gaining more than 2.5% as geopolitical tensions appeared to ease.
The Dow Jones rose 2.5%, the S&P 500 gained 2.9%, and the Nasdaq climbed 3.8%. Technology and communication services led the advance, both rising more than 4%.
Chipmakers rebounded, with Nvidia up 5.6% and Broadcom gaining 5.5%. Marvell Technology surged 12.8% after a US$2 billion investment from Nvidia, while CoreWeave jumped 12% on securing an US$8.5 billion loan to expand AI infrastructure.
Meta Platforms rose 6.7% and Alphabet added 5%, supporting the broader rally.
European markets
European markets ended the session higher but recorded their steepest monthly decline in nearly four years.
The pan-European index fell 8% over March, snapping an eight-month winning streak. On the day, the FTSEurofirst 300 rose 0.4% and the UK FTSE 100 added 0.5%.
Among individual stocks, UBS gained 4% following reports Swiss lawmakers may ease capital requirements, while Unilever dropped 7.3% amid plans to combine its food business with McCormick.
Commodities
Oil markets were volatile as investors weighed the potential end to the conflict.
- Brent crude traded around US$118.35 per barrel, while Nymex crude slipped 1.1% to US$101.71. Despite mixed moves, both benchmarks recorded significant monthly gains, with Brent up close to 70% and Nymex rising about 50%.
- Gold climbed 2.7% to settle at US$4678 per ounce, while iron ore edged up 0.6% to US$106.38 per tonne.
- Base metals also advanced, with copper up 2% and aluminium gaining 2.1%.
Currencies
Currencies strengthened against the US dollar amid improving risk sentiment.
- The euro rose 0.8% to US$1.1561.
- The Japanese yen gained 0.7% to ¥158.66.
- The Australian dollar added 0.7% to US$0.6899.
Looking ahead
In Australia, building approvals data for February is due today. Several companies, including Harvey Norman and ARB, trade ex-dividend, while SEEK, Reece and Generation Development Group are scheduled to make dividend payments.
In the US, investors will focus on retail sales, employment data and the ISM manufacturing PMI for further economic direction.