- FTSE 100 down 134 points at 9,972
- Oil prices surge again
- OECD says UK would be hardest hit by Gulf war
- Corporate updates from Next, Currys, THG, Capita, Ceres
5.15pm: Stocks fall
London stocks came back under pressure on Thursday amid continued Middle East uncertainties, with the FTSE 100 closing down 134 points at 9,972.
“Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts, Iran has rejected 'unacceptable' ceasefire proposals, while reports of potential shipping fees and increased US military presence underscore continued uncertainty,” IG chief technical analyst Axel Rudolph said. “Meanwhile, most global equities fell as investors weighed the inflationary impact of higher energy prices and the likelihood of a prolonged conflict.”
4.11pm: Sizeable loss likely
A not-insubstantial loss is on the card for London's blue chips, down 1.2%, while the mid-cap FTSE 250 has pared losses, down 0.5% now compared to 1.4% this morning.
Footsie fallers are led by 3i Group, plunging 16%, with miners a heavy presence in red, including Antofagasta down 6.3%, Fresnillo falling 4.3%, and Anglo American down 3%.
Lender Standard Chartered, along with defence and aero names Rolls and Babcock were also under pressure.
Eight stocks traded ex-dividend: Aviva, British American Tobacco, Prudential, SEGRO, Smith & Nephew, St James’s Place, Mondi and Lion Finance.
Risers are topped by Next, up almost 5%, followed by BP, Diageo and Shell.
3.41pm: SpaceX IPO - could it ring the bell?
Elon Musk's rocket and satellite company SpaceX was yesterday reported to be close to filing for a US stock market listing, with a $75 billion funding round mooted as part of the process, giving a total valuation of around $1.5 trillion.
A limited free float "could prove squeezy", says AJ Bell investment wonk Russ Mould, adding that as the company also owns Twitter/X and Grok chatbot maker xAI, the listing would be the first big test of the AI boom, especially with Claude developer Anthropic and ChatGPT owner OpenAI potentially also eyeing IPOs, .
Before the US and Israel triggered the war in the Middle East, he notes that financial markets had "started to grapple with whether a bubble had formed in technology and artificial intelligence stocks – thanks to their lofty valuations and equally ambitious spending plans – and the putative stock market flotation for SpaceX should therefore be an interesting test of market sentiment".
The US tech Magnificent Seven, as well as fellow AI hyperscaler Oracle, have all lagged the S&P 500 index in 2026 to date and the S&P has trailed the FTSE All-World this year.
"Sceptics will wonder whether the SpaceX float, with plenty more to maybe follow, will prove to be a classic sign of a market top," says Mould.
"There is an old market saying that bull markets end when the money runs out, and there are plenty of historic examples where a deluge of IPOs and new stock market entrants, and then subsequent secondary offerings, meant sellers eventually swamped buyers."
He points to the bursting of the tech, media, and telecoms bubble in 2000 as one instance and the surge in new listings in 2020 and 2021 "helped to put the brakes on the S&P 500, at least temporarily", in 2022.
3.19pm: Who's wearing shorts?
Three FTSE companies are being heavily shorted at the moment, airline Wizz Air, baker Greggs and brick-maker Ibstock, with net short positions of more than 10%, compared to none at this level for the whole of last year.
According to publicly listed data, Wizz has a net short position of 15.&, Greggs at 13.3% and Ibstock at 12.2%. (Next are WH Smith at 9.5% and NCC Group at 9.1%);
Short selling has "returned to the UK market with a vengeance", according to law firm White & Case, which says no UK companies had net short positions of more than 10% in 2025.
There are 20 UK-listed companies with net short positions of more than 5% as of this week, compared with just two at any point in 2025.
Among these 20, the consumer sector appears to be the most heavily shorted, notes Patrick Sarch, head of UK public M&A at global the law firm.
“Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's not wearing shorts - and indeed who is being shorted," he says.
He says he predicted at the end of last year that there would see a significant increase in shorting shares in UK companies, adding now that "opportunities for short-sellers are more attractive now than they have been for many years.
"Global stock markets have experienced a relatively long decade-plus bull market with strengthening equity valuations, and although the UK remains more moderately priced relative to other markets, UK stocks had been at record highs until the recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and were not generally undervalued relative to each other.
“However, markets are beginning to come off these highs following the recent reallocation out of AI-driven stocks and heightened macro uncertainty. As individual valuations come under pressure, investors are increasingly taking a closer look at those UK-listed companies whose equity stories appear too good to be true and whose fundamentals don’t support their valuations."
He stresses that short-selling plays "a healthy role in capital markets, supporting price discovery, liquidity, transparency, good governance and market discipline", with some instances having played a crucial role in exposing fraud at companies such as Wirecard and Home REIT.
3.02pm: Trump says "don't know if we'll be able" to do Iran deal
Shares slipped lower following a press conference from Donald Trump and comments made in a cabinet meeting.
At a White House news conference he says: “Just so we set the record straight, they are begging to make a deal, not me. And everybody who saw what’s happened over there knows why."
On a potential ceasefire he said: "I don’t know if we’ll be able to do that. I don’t if we’re willing to do that."
After almost four weeks of military strikes he said: "We're absolutely obliterating Iran. They’re defeated, they’re not making a comeback. They now have a chance to make a deal, but that’s up them.
“We’re crushing the missiles and drone stockpiles, destroying their defence industrial base, we’ve wiped out their navy, their air force completely, and wiped out a large percentage of their missiles, and 90% of their launchers.”
Trump said Iran’s leaders “are not fools, they’re very smart in a certain way and they’re great negotiators”.
“I say they’re lousy fighters but great negotiators,” he added, adding that the US is “way ahead of schedule” in the war, which he originally projected would last four to five weeks.
He also said in a video streamed from his cabinet meeting that energy prices will "maybe go up a little bit more" but are "all gonna come back down to where it was and probably lower".
Trump on energy prices: "It's not over, so maybe it'll go up a little bit more. It's all gonna come back down to where it was and probably lower. And my predictions have been right. Trump was right about everything. They have a new hat."
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) March 26, 2026 at 3:00 PM
2.20pm: 3i plunges after Action update
Shares in 3i Group PLC (LSE:III) fell sharply to their lowest level since early 2024 after the private equity firm reported good growth from its main investment, discounter Action,
Action also confirmed it had identified "clear potential" for its discount format in the United States after an in-depth market study, with a first store targeted for somewhere in the south-east of the US by end of 2027 or early 2028.
The sharp fall in the shares may reflect market worries about the investment needed in any attempt by Action to penetrate the highly competitive American market.
3i shares dropped 16% to 2,344p, falling deeper as the session wore on, after the group held a capital markets seminar on Action, revealing it grew net sales 16% to €16 billion in 2025 and added 384 stores across the year.
1.47pm: Tech leads losses in New York
US stocks have opened in the red but are quickly paring losses.
The Nasdaq is down 0.8%, while the Dow Jones is only just a few points below flat, with the S&P 500 in the middle, down 0.5%.
Biggest Dow fallers are Nvidia, down 1.7%, with Caterpillar, Boeing, Amazon, Amgen and 3M all down over 1%.
Top risers are IBM, Cisco, Visa, Salesforce and Chevron, all up less than 1%.
Chipmakers and tech names led S&P 500 and Nasdaq losses, with semiconductor equipment firms, data infrastructure groups and megacap tech including Applovin, Lam Research, ASML, Meta Platforms and Palantir Technologies.
1.19pm: Don't try and time the market, says UBS
Investors, both armchair and institutional, know the trouble that can come from trying to choose the best time to sell or buy.
When it comes to big geopolitical events like the Iran conflict, UBS says it's best not to even try dipping in and out.
UBS warned clients against reading too much into short-term moves such as those inspired by news reports of Washington claiming productive talks with Tehran, or Iran signalling no willingness to negotiate.
UBS said investors should be cautious about making assumptions about a swift return to normal energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with the core message straightforward: trying to move in and out of markets around geopolitical crises tends to destroy rather than protect wealth.
The numbers support the argument. A $100 investment in the S&P 500, the main US stock index, made in September 1989 would have grown to $3,617 by the end of January this year through a simple buy-and-hold approach. Missing just the single best day's performance over that period would have reduced the final pot by around 10%.
The reason missing a handful of days matters so much is that markets' strongest sessions typically occur within weeks of their sharpest falls, meaning investors who sell during downturns often sit in cash exactly when recoveries begin.
In a longer-term vein, over on the FT, the Alphaville team today highlights refreshed research showing that while holding stocks makes money over time, most individual stocks lose money, as a small number of big winners tend to drive long-term market gains.
12.05pm: Stocks firmly in red
The FTSE 100 has sunk to its lowest point of the day as midday ticks past, as oil prices continue to escalate, with US futures also pointing clearly lower.
In London, only just over 10 names are in positive territory, led by Next, BP and Shell.
Brent crude is now up comfortably above $107 a barrel, rising over 5% today.
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Across the pond, Nasdaq futures are down 1%, with the S&P 500 expected to drop 0.9% and the Dow Jones 0.8%.
"Crude prices are dictating much of the action across assets," says market analyst Neil Wilson at Saxo. With Brent futures well above $105 it’s a "risk-off" mood for equity markets "as scepticism over the chances of a lasting peace deal fade".
The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, said there could be talks this weekend in Islamabad.
With President Trump’s five-day deadline coming tomorrow, Wilson says "do you send 2,000 marines and over 3,000 airborne troops not to use them? Am no military strategist or armchair general, but based on what has happened in the past I can see a scenario where the 'talks' are a distraction to buy time to put the US assets in place, to deploy, and then hold the ultimate bargaining chip."
"Don't bet against the administration's desire for a D-Day style invasion of the key chokepoint at Kharg Island. Bloomberg reports that administration officials are looking into what $200 oil would look like," he adds.
11.31am: OECD report
UK growth faces the sharpest downgrade among major economies from the current war in the Gulf, according to the first major update for the global economy since the outbreak of fighting.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development cut its 2026 forecast for UK growth by 0.5 percentage points to 0.7%, as it expects higher energy prices to weigh on consumer spending. It predicts inflation of 4% for the UK, up from the annual rate of 3% seen in official figures earlier this week.
Meanwhile, US growth is expected to be stronger, reflecting its status as a net energy exporter.
The OECD report said: "The breadth and duration of the conflict are very uncertain, but a prolonged period of higher energy prices will add markedly to business costs and raise consumer price inflation, with adverse consequences for growth."
The prospect of persistent disruptions to exports from the Middle East is "a significant downside risk to the outlook", potentially raising energy prices even further than assumed and aggravating shortages of key commodities, adding to inflation and further reducing growth even beyond those in the report.
"Such a scenario, or lower than expected returns from AI investment, could also trigger more extensive repricing in financial markets, weakening demand and raising financial stability risks."
Financial markets fully priced in two to three Bank of England interest rate hikes this year, but the OECD believes there is no need, seeing the current rate of 3.75% as restrictive enough, given the country's existing labour market weakness.
11.14am: BA bonus scheme aims to increase fuel efficiency
With fuel costs around multi-year highs and emissions also on the agenda, British Airways owner International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (LSE:IAG) is reportedly introducing a bonus system for pilots who burn less fuel.
According to Bloomberg, pilots could get bonus equal to 1% of their basic salary if collective targets are met to reduce BA's carbon emissions by 60,000 tonnes compared to 2025 levels.
However, the measure is not going to help with the current spike in oil and jet fuel prices, with members of the BA Pilots' Association to vote on the proposal next month, with the scheme to be introduced next year.
"Flight crew decisions have a direct and measurable impact on fuel burn and emissions," according to a document quoted in the report. "The incentive exists only to recognise and reward fuel efficient behaviours when, and only when, they are compatible with uncompromised safety and sound airmanship."
Some suggested economies include adjusting taxiing procedures and extra fuel loads, the report says.
10.51am: War words
Some of those messages from the Middle East (and the White House).
Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) officials are meeting in Riyadh this morning as the regional crisis deepens, with the bloc's secretary-general warning that Iran has "overcome all red lines" by closing the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil passes.
With GCC nations producing 22% of global crude oil output, Jassim Mohammed Al-Budaiwi warned that stability of supply "is not a luxury; it is a necessity for international markets."
The GCC says Iran’s attacks on countries in the region "is not just another escalation in the region, it is a change, a turning point in the relationship and situation between Iran and the GCC countries".
In the background, Israel claims to have killed Iran's Revolutionary Guard navy commander in an air strike overnight.
Meanwhile, President Trump has posted a short, all-caps post criticising Nato allies for doing "absolutely nothing to help" the US in its military campaign against Iran.
However, he quickly followed that by saying that "the USA needs nothing from Nato, but 'never forget' this very important point in time".
10.26am: Mixed messages from Middle East send oil higher
Everyone is keen to hear news of a potential ceasefire in the Middle East this week, but progress is hard to spot.
"Once again there are mixed messages from the US and Iran, leaving markets confused," says market analyst Dan Coatsworth at AJ Bell.
"Momentum has been lost across the main European stock indices and oil has edged higher, meaning it’s still a waiting game,”
Josh Mahony at Scope Markets says traders are "waking up to the high likeliness that Trumps five-day extension passes without an agreement".
He adds that for stocks, "the negative relationship between inflation expectations and stockmarket sentiment means that the rise in crude seen today has dampened sentiment in European markets."
Brent crude and WTI are both up over 3% this morning to $105.9 a barrel and $93.2 a barrel respectively.
Across Europe, Germany's DAX is the chief underperformer today, down 1.45% as with the surge in energy costs hurts the manufacturing-heavy index, while the FTSE is next, down just over 1%.
With the deadline approaching for the US to resume energy infrastructure strikes, Mahony says "fears are growing around a potential escalation over the course of the weekend".
9.38am: Capita, Checkit and Ceres climb
Some more risers on what is broadly a down day, with the FTSE 100 falling 1.25% and the FTSE 250 fown 1.3%.
Ceres Power is up 10% after final results that were "broadly in line" with expectations, according to Panmure Liberum analyst Alexandro da Silva O’Hanlon, and a strategic partnership with British Gas owner Centrica to "accelerate the deployment of solid oxide on‑site power solutions to meet the multi-gigawatt demand from commercial and industrial customers".
Adjusted EBITDA losses of £32.5 million were slightly bigger than the consensus £31.1 million, while net cash (ex leases) declined "materially" less than expected from £102.5 million to £83.3 million.
Looking outside the FTSE 250, Capita has jumped over 9% after it agreed to sell its private sector call centre business for a nominal £1, as part of the outsourcing group's ongoing efforts to focus on its public sector and pensions operations.
Checkit, which runs an operational intelligence software platform, surged 28% after announcing the launch of a formal sale process following six unsolicited approaches from potential acquirers over the past nine months.
Shares in THG are up 8% as its full-year results showed earnings ahead of forecasts and positive trading momentum carrying into 2026.
9.16am: Co-op CEO to step down
Could Alex Baldock be going to the Co-op? Seems like a challenge.
The mutual retailer said its chief executive Shirine Khoury-Haq is stepping down after four years in the role, with a statement made alongside a trading update that revealed a £107 million hit to profits from last year's cyber attack.
Khoury-Haq, who joined Co-op in 2019, will leave at the end of the month, with board director Kate Allum stepping in as interim chief executive while a permanent successor is sought.
Khoury-Haq said the organisation was "ready to deliver on an ambitious strategy of stabilisation and transformation," adding that it extended beyond the timeframe she had planned for her tenure.
Co-op said the cyberattack, as it forced the group to restrict its own systems, had an estimated £285 million direct impact on revenue, which fell 2.3% to just under £11 billion, and dragged the group to an underlying operating loss of £35 million for 2025.
Total sales were broadly flat if excluding the cyber impact and Co-op said it was already recovering market share.
8.58am: Cold Currys
Going the other way, Currys shares are the biggest faller on the FTSE 350, dropping 9.5% after CEO Alex Baldock handed in his notice.
He is "clearly a loss to the business", says John Stevenson at Peel Hunt, having led the turnaround over the past eight years.
"In some respects, the heavy lifting and hard work has been completed, but he will be a hard act to follow."
Wayne Brown at house broker Panmure Liberum agrees that Baldock leaves Currys "a significantly stronger business than the one he inherited in 2018", having overseen the exit of Carphone Warehouse, the sale of Greece operations, the successful transition to a fully omnichannel model and delivered a substantial reduction in the pension deficit as well as moving from a net debt to a net cash position.
8.32am: Next almost alone at top of risers
The top end of the Footsie has a strange look to it.
Sitting almost alone, Next is up 6.5%, with this morning's results having erased over half its losses since the start of the Iran war.
Then the next highest risers are BP, Experian, Shell and Imperial Brands, up around 0.4-0.8%.
Analyst John Stevenson at Peel Hunt says the results "confirmed a particularly strong year for the group", with growth "delivered across all fronts, including retail, online, and wholly owned licenses and brands".
The guidance for the new year is largely unchanged from January, he says, with accelerating warehouse investment plans to increase capacity given recent growth rates.
Strevenson sees Next's comments on the Middle East, a region accounting for around 6% of its total turnover, as "measured", with the retailer setting aside £15 million to cover likely additional costs over the next three months.
8.15am: FTSE 100 opens lower as miners and ex-divs fall
The FTSE 100 has dropped 60 points to 10,047 at the open.
Guess what? Miners are bearing the brunt, while a group of big shares have gone ex-dividend to add further blows.
Copper miner Antofagasta is down 4.7% and precious metals unearther Fresnillo is 4.2% lower, with Anglo American down 3.2%, Endeavour and Rio Tinto both down just over 2%, and Glencore off 1.7%.
The cluster of stocks trading ex-div is led by heavyweights Aviva, British American Tobacco and Prudential, all lower as their payouts come out of the price.
SEGRO, Smith & Nephew, St James’s Place, Mondi and Lion Finance make up the eight that, in total, are shaving 12 points off the index.
8.02am: Currys CEO quits
Currys chief executive Alex Baldock is leaving after eight years in the role, to take up a new position elsewhere.
The FTSE 250 electricals retailer said it would begin a formal search for his successor, with Baldock remaining in post to ensure a smooth handover.
Currys also issued a brief trading update alongside the announcement, saying performance since its last update in January had been in line with expectations.
7.55am: THG swings to profit
THG has reported a swing to profit and accelerating sales growth, as the online retailer and sports nutrition maker said it was making progress in simplifying the business after years of restructuring.
The group swung to a profit after tax of £54.1 million in 2025, against a loss of £326.1 million a year earlier, helped by the sale of its Claremont Ingredients unit.
THG also flagged a potential £78 million tax windfall from an ongoing VAT dispute with HMRC over the tax treatment of protein powders, with a ruling expected by the end of spring.
7.41am: Next profits hit mark, this year Middle East is key variable
Next has reported a 14.5% jump in annual profits and warned that the conflict in the Middle East may push up costs and dampen sales growth in the year ahead.
Pre-tax profit came in at £1.158 billion for the year to January 2026, in line with its latest upgraded guidance.
The current year is expected to see profit rise 4.5% to £1.2 billion, with full-price sales growth forecast at the same rate.
However, Next flagged the Middle East conflict as a near-term risk, noting the region accounts for around 6% of its total turnover.
7.22am: Background analysis for markets
Several factors are responsible for the resurgence in the oil price, says Jim Reid at Deutsche Bank but "the big one" is that Iran has continued to reject the messages from the US about some kind of deal, "raising questions about whether there is really an off-ramp to the conflict in the days ahead".
Financial market attention is now turning to the end of Trump’s five-day deadline, ie tomorrow, until which he said he’d postpone strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure.
"That’s just over 48 hours away now, and multiple outlets have reported that thousands of US troops have been sent to the region. So the prospect of a fresh escalation is still top of mind for investors."
European and US futures are in the red, while Treasury yields are back up, with the 2yr US Treasury yield currently at the highest since July.
"So it’s a tough morning across the board."
Stripping away the words coming out of Washington and Tehran, says Kyle Rodda at Capital.com, the fresh build-up of US military ships and personnel in the region suggests US President Donald Trump "may be getting his ducks in a row to at least give himself the option of a limited ground invasion, designed to take back control of the Strait of Hormuz.
"It could be mostly for theatre or leverage. Alternatively, this could be similar to the end of February where constructive language about ongoing talks is something of a Trojan Horse to buy time before launching new hostilities.
"If the game of he said she said continues into the weekend, it'll keep the markets moving on headline risk and fuel simmering fears of another weekend escalation."
7.16am: FTSE 100 predicted to drop as oil price rises on Iran's refusal to negotiate
The FTSE 100 is predicted to beat another retreat on Thursday morning as energy prices are reignited despite encouraging diplomatic noises being made over the Middle East war.
A decline of 30 points has been pencilled in on the futures market for the London share benchmark, removing some of the almost 142 points gained by yesterday's close at 10,106.84.
US stocks finished higher overnight, with the Nasdaq ending up 0.8%, the Dow Jones rising 0.7% and the S&P 500 adding 0.5%.
Asian stocks are mixed but mostly in the red this morning, led by a 1.9% drop for the Hang Seng in Hong Kong, while the Nikkei is down 0.3%.
Brent crude oil futures are up 2.5% at $104.8 a barrel. Gold and silver are down around 2% and 3% respectively, with copper lower too.
On the diplomatic front, China’s foreign minister said: "With both the United States and Iran signalling a willingness to negotiate, a glimmer of hope for peace has emerged,” per Agence France-Presse.
Yet Iran's foreign minister said no negotiations have taken place and "speaking of negotiations now is an admission of defeat".