4:05: ASX closes sharply higher as CPI relief offsets lingering Middle East unease
The S&P/ASX 200 finished the session up 154.9 points or 1.85% at 8,534.3, rebounding strongly after the previous session’s weakness and holding onto most of its midday gains following a softer-than-expected inflation print. The broader index still sits down 1.23% over five days and 2.07% year to date.
Gold and miners underpin the session
Resources were central to the index’s bounce, with gold miners among the strongest contributors as bullion prices rebounded on shifting expectations around the Middle East conflict.
Gold has been highly volatile in recent sessions — swinging sharply as headlines alternate between escalation and potential negotiations — but remains elevated enough to support buying in ASX-listed producers.
That strength helped anchor the broader materials sector, which carried much of the index higher throughout the day.
In company news, APA Group completed the divestment of its 20% stake in the Allgas Network, while Aldoro Resources released a market update on an “outstanding 600m diamond hole” tied to ferrite magnet mineralisation.
Markets still watching the Middle East
The Middle East conflict continues to inject caution, with reports that the US and Israel were still striking Iranian targets even as President Donald Trump pushed the idea of negotiations, while also preparing to send another 3,000 to 4,000 troops to the Middle East.
For equity markets, that left the same tension in place: hopes for de-escalation on one side, and the risk of another energy shock on the other.
3:05: Rally steadies as leadership shifts, CPI leaves outlook finely balanced
Momentum on the ASX is beginning to level out after the late-morning surge, with the index still holding solid gains but no longer pushing higher.
The S&P/ASX 200 is up 153.3 points or 1.83% to 8,532.7, with leadership rotating through the market rather than broadening further. DroneShield and Liontown are now among the standout performers, up 15.7% and 11.9% respectively, highlighting strength in defence-linked and lithium names as the session evolves.
CPI debate turns more nuanced
The softer inflation print initially drove the rally, but interpretation is becoming less one-sided.
Economists remain split on whether the 3.7% reading meaningfully changes the policy outlook, with some suggesting it weakens the case for further tightening, while others point out inflation remains well above target — and does not yet reflect rising energy costs.
That leaves rate expectations finely balanced, even as earlier bets on a near-term hike were pared back.
Corporate and small-cap updates
In company news, Rio Tinto has edged higher after securing a $2 billion government-backed package to support operations at its Boyne aluminium smelter, alongside commitments to invest in renewable energy.
Worley has also traded modestly higher after outlining measures to manage its exposure to Middle East operations, as companies navigate ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
APA Group has completed the divestment of its 20% stake in the Allgas Network, while consolidation continues in the junior space, with Electrum shareholders approving a merger with MinRex
1:15: ASX trims gains slightly as rally steadies, tech pressure lingers
The S&P/ASX 200 has eased slightly from its highs but remains firmly in positive territory, up 156.9 points or 1.87% to 8,536.3, as the morning’s rally begins to stabilise.
Vulcan Energy Resources and Imdex are leading gains, both up more than 11%, with strength across lithium and broader materials continuing to underpin the session.
Tech sentiment under pressure
Weakness in technology stocks remains a drag at the margins, following fresh concerns around intensifying AI competition.
Shares in Atlassian have come under renewed pressure after reports that Amazon is developing new AI tools, highlighting the growing threat to traditional software platforms as automation accelerates.
That dynamic continues to weigh on local tech names, reinforcing the divergence between growth sectors and resource stocks.
Small-cap momentum continues
In the junior space, exploration names are also seeing renewed interest. Marmota shares were up more than 2% as the company flagged progress on its uranium program design, adding to broader strength across the uranium segment as prices hold firm.
12:15: ASX tops 2% gain as CPI cools, miners extend rally
The S&P/ASX 200 is pushing higher into midday, up 174 points or nearly 2.1%, with the rally accelerating after a slightly softer inflation print.
Imdex and Genesis Minerals are leading gains, both up more than 10%, as strength across the mining sector continues to anchor the move. The index remains down 1.09% over five days and 1.93% year to date.
CPI tempers rate hike bets
Headline CPI eased to 3.7% year-on-year in February, just below expectations, prompting traders to dial back near-term rate hike bets.
The shift has been modest rather than decisive, but enough to support risk sentiment in the short term.
Resources drive momentum
Materials are doing the heavy lifting, up more than 4%, with gold and lithium names extending earlier gains.
Gold miners are tracking a rebound in bullion prices, while lithium stocks are higher following strength in Chinese futures.
Stock movers highlight divergence
At the stock level, moves remain sharp. Amplitude Energy has plunged around 40% after confirming its Isabella gas discovery is non-commercial, while 4DMedical has surged more than 20% on a US deployment deal with the Mayo Clinic.
The rally remains uneven, with technology stocks still under pressure after the Nasdaq’s overnight decline, as higher yields continue to weigh on growth valuations.
11:35: CPI edges lower but inflation remains sticky
Australia’s latest inflation data has offered only limited relief, with headline CPI easing slightly to 3.7% year-on-year in February, down from 3.8% previously. Market consensus had expected the figure to hold at 3.8%.
While the move lower may appear encouraging on the surface, underlying price pressures remain persistent. Trimmed mean inflation held at 3.3%, still above the RBA’s 2–3% target band, highlighting ongoing stickiness in core inflation.
The detail reinforces that much of the recent moderation has been driven by goods, while services inflation — particularly housing-related costs — continues to run hot. Electricity prices and rents remain key contributors, underscoring the structural pressures facing households.
For markets, the takeaway is nuanced rather than outright dovish. Inflation is no longer accelerating, but it is not falling quickly enough to materially shift the policy outlook. Expectations for further RBA tightening remain in play, particularly with energy prices now rising again amid Middle East tensions — a factor not yet fully captured in the February data.
The ASX has so far held onto its gains following the release, suggesting investors were broadly positioned for a similar outcome. However, with inflation still sitting above target and risks skewed to the upside, the data is unlikely to provide a clear catalyst for a sustained rally.
11:05: ASX extends gains ahead of CPI as miners surge, tech lags
The S&P/ASX 200 has pushed further into positive territory, now up 119.9 points or 1.43% to 8,499.3, as strength in resources continues to drive the market higher ahead of this morning’s key inflation print.
Momentum has broadened through the session, with nine of eleven sectors in the green. Materials remain the clear standout, climbing more than 3%, while energy stocks are under pressure despite oil prices holding above US$100 a barrel — a reflection of ongoing volatility tied to the Middle East conflict.
The rally is being led by gold and mining names, with Emerald Resources and Genesis Minerals among the top performers, up more than 10% and 9.6% respectively. The move comes as gold prices stabilise on renewed reports of potential US-Iran negotiations, even as geopolitical risks remain fluid.
Uranium stocks are also broadly higher, tracking firm futures prices overnight, with names such as Paladin Energy, Deep Yellow and Bannerman Energy posting solid gains.
However, the strength in resources is being offset in part by weakness in growth sectors. Technology stocks are under pressure following the Nasdaq’s decline overnight, with Xero, TechnologyOne and WiseTech all trading lower as higher bond yields weigh on valuations.
At the stock level, volatility remains pronounced. Amplitude Energy has plunged around 40% after confirming its Isabella gas discovery is non-commercial, while 4DMedical is sharply higher after securing a deployment of its CT:VQ imaging technology at the Mayo Clinic in the US.
With CPI due at 11:30am AEDT, the next move for the market may hinge on whether inflation shows signs of easing — or reinforces expectations that interest rates will need to stay higher for longer.
For now, the ASX is holding onto solid gains, but as seen in recent sessions, sentiment remains highly sensitive to both macro data and geopolitical headlines.
10:15 am: ASX jumps on resource strength
The S&P/ASX 200 has opened strongly on Wednesday, climbing 100.8 points or 1.2% to 8,480.2, as investors tentatively step back into risk despite a still-uncertain global backdrop.
The early gains come even as offshore markets remain unsettled. Wall Street finished lower overnight, with sentiment caught between conflicting signals around the Iran conflict — including renewed talk of negotiations alongside fresh military escalation — while rising bond yields continue to reflect persistent inflation concerns.
That tension is still shaping the session locally. Investors appear willing to buy into recent weakness, particularly across resources, but conviction remains fragile ahead of today’s key CPI print at 11:30am AEDT.
Materials are leading the rebound, with lithium and gold names recovering after recent heavy selling. Genesis Minerals and PLS Group are among the top performers, up 6.9% and 6.6% respectively, as commodity-linked stocks benefit from firmer prices and improved risk appetite.
In corporate news, Rio Tinto has secured a major $2 billion government-backed support package to extend operations at its Boyne aluminium smelter through to at least 2040. The deal — part of the Federal Government’s Future Made in Australia initiative — underpins one of the world’s few fully integrated aluminium supply chains and reinforces the sector’s strategic importance.
Elsewhere, Pepper Money has rejected a $2.25 per share takeover proposal from Challenger, saying the offer was not reasonably capable of execution, while Syrah Resources has entered a trading halt pending details of a proposed funding package that may include both debt and equity components.
On the data front, attention is firmly on inflation, with expectations for headline CPI to remain elevated around 3.9% year-on-year. With petrol prices rising and housing costs still sticky, markets are increasingly factoring in the risk of further RBA tightening in the months ahead.
For now, the ASX is pushing higher — but as recent sessions have shown, early strength may prove difficult to hold if macro uncertainty continues to dominate sentiment.