Vistry Group PLC (LSE:VTY), the FTSE 250 housebuilder, is cutting asking prices on new homes far more aggressively than its rivals – and far more than analyst forecasts currently assume, according to new data from RBC Capital Markets.
RBC used its proprietary data to track price changes on 1,258 Vistry homes listed on the company's website as of 3 January, checking back on 13 March to see what had moved.
The results are striking: 43% of those homes had seen their price reduced, with the average cut among discounted properties running at 6.4% – equivalent to roughly £20,000 to £40,000 off a typical home.
That compares with the current City consensus, which assumes Vistry's average private selling price will fall by just 1.4% across the full year – a gap that RBC believes the market has not fully reckoned with.
The findings follow Vistry chief executive Greg Fitzgerald's statement at the company's full-year results on 4 March, when he said each of the group's 25 regional managing directors had been instructed to "double sales rates" through price reductions.
Vistry's strategy was framed as prioritising sales volumes and cash generation over margins – and already rattled the housebuilding sector, but the RBC analysis suggests the scale of what is under way may be bigger than investors appreciate.
Around 40% of all the price cuts tracked were in the 5-10% range, while roughly 15% exceeded 10%.
RBC's concerns extend beyond pricing, too, with analysts flagging an unconfirmed report in The Times suggesting Vistry had halted payments to some suppliers as management focuses on preserving cash, with the group allegedly seeking payment deferrals and discounts from subcontractors.
The report sits in awkward contrast to comments Fitzgerald made at the results presentation, when he said: "Subcontractors absolutely love our model. They treat us as paying the mortgage."
Vistry has not publicly confirmed the supplier payments story.
RBC also flagged a political dimension that could weigh on one of the company's most important revenue streams.
In FY25, Vistry delivered one in seven of all affordable homes built in the UK – a concentration that has drawn scrutiny from Paul Holmes, the shadow housing minister, who has raised concerns with the Financial Times that the government has created an uneven playing field by favouring a single developer.
Any pressure on that affordable housing pipeline – which forms the backbone of Vistry's business model – would represent a significant additional headwind.
RBC maintained its 'underperform' rating on the stock, saying the accumulation of issues "has heightened the uncertainty around estimates."