Trainline PLC (LSE:TRN, FRA:2T9A), the FTSE 250 rail ticketing platform, fell 4% to 185p on Thursday despite reporting a full-year trading update that was broadly in line with expectations, as investors remain nervous about the longer-term impact of UK rail nationalisation and the loss of a departing chief executive.
Revenue for the year to February 2026 rose 2% to £453 million, marginally ahead of analyst forecasts, with the group guiding to a double-digit increase in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA), consistent with broker estimates of around £176 million.
The numbers were solid given the headwinds the business navigated during the year, including a rail accident in Spain that dampened international consumer demand in the second half, and continued pressure in the UK from Project Oval, the initiative that allows train operators to sell tickets directly through their own platforms rather than via third parties.
Business-to-business sales were a bright spot, with Trainline Solutions growing 36% year on year and international B2B sales through its Global API up 58%, reflecting the growing appetite among corporate travel managers for a single platform to book European rail.
Trainline is halfway through a £150 million share buyback programme and has now repurchased and cancelled £275 million worth of shares since September 2023, equivalent to 21% of its issued share capital.
Brokers remain firmly in the 'buy' camp, with Shore Capital maintaining a fair value estimate of 400p and Peel Hunt carrying a target price of 438p, pointing to what they describe as an undemanding free cash flow yield of around 17% for the coming financial year.
The uncertainty clouding the stock centres on the pending Great British Railways (GBR) tender process, ongoing digital pay-as-you-go trials, and the search for a successor to chief executive Jody Ford, with full-year results due on 6 May expected to provide more clarity.