Prediction market bettors are placing strong odds on crude oil prices surging back to $100 a barrel before the end of March, even as prices pull back sharply from the highs reached last week following the outbreak of war between the US, Israel and Iran.
Data from Polymarket, the decentralised prediction platform, shows traders pricing a 72% probability that NYMEX crude oil futures will hit $100 by 31 March, with a 48% chance of reaching $110 and a 36% chance of $120.
The odds reflect the extreme volatility that has gripped energy markets since US and Israeli forces struck Iran on 28 February, effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which approximately 20% of the world's oil supply travels by tanker.
Brent crude surged from around $71 per barrel in late February to above $100 within days, briefly touching $119 before retreating sharply as diplomatic signals began filtering through.
By Wednesday, Brent had pulled back to around $88 per barrel as traders weighed the prospect of a negotiated reopening of the strait against the physical reality of stranded tankers and shuttered production, though Thursday saw a jump back up to $96.
The International Energy Agency has agreed to release a record 400 million barrels from strategic stockpiles to cool prices, with the US contributing the largest share.
Iraq and Kuwait have cut output sharply and declared force majeure, unable to move crude as Hormuz shipping remains blocked and onshore storage nears capacity.
Goldman Sachs has raised its fourth-quarter Brent forecast, assuming strait flows begin recovering from 21 March, while analysts have warned prices could reach $150 per barrel if the blockade persists through the month-end.
The Polymarket data also shows a 41% probability of prices falling back to $80 before the end of March, reflecting the sharp two-way risk in a market caught between a geopolitical supply shock and the underlying global surplus that had oil trading near $60 before the conflict began. But it sees only a 4% chance of it hitting $200.