Financial market strategists at Citi think the worst of the oil price shock may be over, and they are putting money to work on that view for the second time in a week.
In a note pondering if it was "time to buy the dip", the bank's global macro team said they first started buying back into markets last week, arguing that oil price spikes caused by geopolitical crises tend to be violent but brief.
"The day the oil price peaks, risk bottoms," they told clients, adding that the crisis could "relatively easily be ended by the US administration, essentially by claiming victory and disengaging from the active conflict."
Their confidence has grown since, helped by Donald Trump's comments that the conflict could end soon, and the International Energy Agency has been pushing major economies to release emergency oil reserves.
Citi said the threat of a release may be acting as a ceiling on prices even before any barrels hit the market, describing it as a "Damocles sword" hanging over anyone holding long oil positions.
Citi said it sees momentum building again for the Australian dollar, and is betting it will push higher still if the guns fall silent.
"In the end, we do think that it is all a similar trade. If oil really has peaked, most assets will snap back further," the strategists wrote.
"Still, the easiest way to think about what to buy is to just check which assets have sold off the most."
"However, at this stage, the snap back has already been relatively large in many assets. We are therefore taking a different tack."
Instead of chasing assets that have already bounced hard, the bank is looking at a more creative angle: currencies that barely fell during the crisis, on the logic that they have more room to rise if tensions ease.
Their pick is the Australian dollar, which has held its ground throughout the conflict thanks to rising commodity export revenues and an increasingly hawkish central bank.
Markets are now pricing further rate hikes after Reserve Bank of Australia officials warned of "toxic" high inflation if policymakers failed to act decisively.